Although
the Copenhagen climate talks next month may not
yield a consensus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, it is "only a
matter of time" before the U.S.
and China--the
world's two largest polluters--commit to targets, International Energy Agency
Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka said Tuesday.
Committing to targets is essential for energy security and economic growth in
both countries, Tanaka told Dow Jones Newswires.
"They aren't sure what the costs are [for their economies], but if the benefits
suddenly surpass the costs, and there is a mutual understanding between both
parties, it will happen," he said.
Tanaka said he plans to be in Copenhagen
for the second week of talks and that the IEA was cautiously optimistic about the results. "It's difficult, but
without a clear message from Copenhagen,
nothing will happen."
Meanwhile, increased refining capacity in China,
India and the Middle East will likely be balanced by ample supplies of
crude oil, he said.
However, refinery investments will "create more competition for
less-competitive refiners in OECD [Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development] countries, so overcapacity could happen in these less
competitive-refining sectors."
Tanaka said it was "very disappointing" that China recently
stopped releasing data about its oil-product stockpile levels.
"We hope that they will start reporting it again, because getting the
information is very important for making projections about consumption and
demand."
Countries such as China
may be hesitant to compile and release energy data because of the high cost,
objections from the private sector and for national security reasons, he said.
But, "it's in everybody's interest to provide better data; more
transparency is the best way to make the market function better," he said.
He said China and India will
eventually become members of the IEA, without giving a specific time frame for the memberships.
"Without question, the majority of energy consumption is already in
non-OECD members," he said. "It's obvious to have them be members,
and our cooperation will pave the way for future membership of these countries."