Turkey looks likely to avoid fresh European Union sanctions at an EU summit this week despite its persistent refusal to deal openly with Cyprus, with Europe keen not to upset progress and to keep a key energy partner onside.
However, the failure to move forwards on the issue will do nothing to speed up Turkey's glacial passage towards EU membership.
In a draft statement drawn up for the EU summit starting Thursday, EU heads of state and government voice regret that Turkey hasn't moved despite a December deadline to open its ports and airports to Cyprus.
Turkey refuses to do so, arguing that the EU has failed to keep its promises to ease the international isolation of the breakaway Turkish Cypriots.
The EU has already punished Turkey, in 2006, by freezing accession talks in eight of the 35 policy areas that candidates must complete prior to joining the bloc.
"It is very clear that the implementation [of the accord] is an obligation for Turkey...and we will express ourselves on the issue" at the summit, Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt, whose country holds the rotating EU presidency, said recently.
However, while calling for "progress without further delay," the EU isn't planning to take fresh action or set new deadlines.
Turkey is bitter that the Greek Cypriots, whose government is the island's internationally recognized administration, were admitted into the EU in 2004 despite voting down a United Nations peace plan, while the Turkish Cypriots, who gave the plan overwhelmingly support, were left out in the cold.
Since starting EU membership negotiations in 2005, Turkey has opened talks in only 11 of the 35 policy areas.
The process has also been slowed down by opposition from some EU members, notably France and Germany, which argue that the populous and relatively poor Muslim-majority country should be given a special status rather than membership.
The EU leaders, when they meet at their Brussels summit Thursday and Friday, will welcome some progress by Turkey in other important areas, including the judiciary, civil-military relations and cultural rights.
In particular, the 27 heads of state and government see progress on the key Kurdish minority issue which "should lead to concrete measures guaranteeing all Turkish citizens full rights and freedoms."
The summit is also set to recognize "significant diplomatic efforts made to normalize relations with Armenia," according to the draft conclusions seen by AFP.
Turkey and Armenia have been at loggerheads for years over the killing of an estimated 1.5 million Armenians by Ottoman Turks in 1915.
Justifying the decision not to take further action against Turkey, the draft summit text "underlines the importance of avoiding any threat or actions which could damage good neighborly relations and the peaceful settlement of disputes."
Turkey is also important to the EU as a partner in the ambitious Nabucco gas pipeline scheme, which is to run from the Caspian Sea to Europe.
Cyprus has been exerting pressure on its EU partners not to act as if there is no problem.
However, as one European diplomat noted, "with eight chapters blocked, the EU already has some pretty heavy political sanctions in place."
There is also unease in Europe over Turkey's recent rapprochement with Russia.
The Russians and Turks have recently signed several cooperation deals in the energy sector and also plan to hold joint ministerial meetings.
The setting up of a Turkish-Russian "privileged partnership" would be seen in some quarters as a response to the attitude of Europeans--led by France--who are opposed to Turkey joining the EU.
It is just that sort of pivotal position that makes Turkey interesting to both sides.