Iraq is only likely to achieve around half its target of growing oil production to 12 million barrels a day in the next six or seven years, Cambridge Energy Research Associates, which is part of energy consultancy IHS, said Wednesday.

IHS CERA expects Iraq 's oil output to hit 4.3 million barrels a day by 2015 and 6.5 million barrels a day in 2020, compared with around 2.4 million barrels a day currently.

"Political, security, operational and infrastructure challenges in the country, along with a likely shortage of skilled personnel, are likely to hamper progress" towards the 12 million barrel a day target, said CERA's Middle East Director Bhushan Bahree in a statement.

However, meeting CERA's more modest expectations "would still constitute a significant expansion" and have implications for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and the regional power balance, he said. If rising production causes OPEC to raise Iraq 's output quota above that of Iran it could generate tension in the group, he said.

The Iraqi government has signed contracts with major oil companies including BP PLC (BP), Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSB), ExxonMobil Corp. (XOM), Eni SpA (E) and China National Petroleum Corp. to redevelop operational oil fields that have suffered from years of neglect and underinvestment. It aims to boost oil output by 250,000 barrels this year.

The consortium to develop Iraq 's largest field, Rumaila, led by BP, awarded this week $600 million worth of contracts for drilling and other work on the field, aimed at boosting its output. BP aims to make Rumaila the world's second most productive oil field, after Saudi Arabia 's Ghawar field, by 2015.

" Iraq 's expansion timetable appears extraordinarily ambitious in comparison to the recently completed capacity increase in Saudi Arabia ," said Bahree. " Saudi Arabia has significant security and infrastructure advantages yet it took between four and five years to expand its net output capacity by some 2 million barrels a day. Iraq will certainly be challenged to match this pace, much less exceed it."

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