Liability is the key issue for BP (BP.LN) says Credit Suisse, although
the brokerage concedes that getting close to "zero oil" is an
important psychological step. Says there are four main liability questions that
remain unanswered. First, the amount of compensatory claims; secondly whether
gross negligence will be proven; thirdly, if gross negligence is proven, whether
punitive damages apply; and lastly, how liability will be shared amongst
partners.
Says its 515p target price offers 20%-26% potential upside. In its
"optimist" case, says there is potential upside to 604p. In the
"pessimist" case, BP's share price embeds gross negligence, 100% of
costs and a total liability of $61Bln, pretax. Has outperform rating. BP is -3% at 395p.