Total US company-held stocks of crude oil and refined petroleum products
are expected to stand at 1.094 bil bbls at the end of 2010, the highest
end-year level since 1984, the EIA projects in its Oct Short-Term Energy
Outlook released Wed. Stocks would be 4.2%, or 44 mln bbls, above a year
earlier, and 4.6%, or 53 mln bbls, below the level estimated at the end of 3Q,
when stocks were the highest for that time of year since 1981.
Stocks are
expected to drop 24 mln bbls to end 1Q 2011 at 1.07 billlion bbls, which would
be about 20 mln bbls below the 27-year high at end 1Q 2009. End-year crude
stocks are expected to be 350.1 mln bbls, the highest level at that time of
year since 1981. But at the end of 1Q 2011, crude stock are expected to be
362.3 mln bbls, or below the 19-year high hit in 2009. Distillate stocks
(diesel/heating oil) are expected to be 166.4 mln bbl at year-end, the most
since 1982.
Despite an expected drawdown of about 20 mln bbls in 1Q, stocks of
146.5 mln bbl would be the highest at the end of Mar since 1981. Gasoline
stocks, at 223.2 mln bbls at year end will be little changed from a year
earlier and are expected to dip to 220.9 mln bbls at the end of 1Q 2011. That
would be the lowest level at that time of year since 2007.