Higher Oil Demand Forecast Pits IEA Against OPEC

The International Energy Agency said again Tuesday that the world will need more crude from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries amid faster-than-expected oil demand growth, or risk high prices that damage the economic recovery.

The report by the IEA, which represents major energy-consuming countries, will increase pressure on OPEC to lift its production ceiling amid an intensifying debate between the agency and the oil producers' group over the causes and implications of higher crude prices.

The IEA January monthly report boosted demand estimates for 2010 and 2011 by 320,000 barrels a day from their level in the December report. The agency now sees 2010 oil demand rising by 2.7 million barrels a day year-to-year to 87.7 million barrels a day, and a subsequent rise in demand of 1.4 million barrels a day in 2011 to 89.1 million barrels a day.

While global oil inventories declined somewhat compared with the IEA's December report, they remain fairly high by historic standards.

The overall energy consumption patterns "suggest that the economic recovery has been more pronounced than expected earlier," the IEA said.

The hike to the IEA demand forecast, which comes hard on the heels of OPEC's upgrade Monday to its own 2011 global oil demand forecast, was largely due to stronger-than-expected consumption in the rich economies of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development. The report in particular cited Eurozone activity, largely driven by Germany .

The IEA has been increasingly vocal in recent weeks in highlighting the threat to the global economy from runaway oil prices. On Monday, IEA's Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka said "OPEC must continue to be alarmed" over the price hike and suggested formally increasing its output ceiling could ease oil prices.

But in statements to Dow Jones Monday, OPEC secretary general Abdalla Salem El-Badri insisted commercial stocks and the group's spare capacity remained robust. OPEC has repeatedly decided to maintain its production ceiling during recent meetings amid calls by some OPEC members to defend ever-higher prices.

"Any assumption that there is tightness in the market... is incorrect," El-Badri said. "There is more than enough oil on the market."

El-Badri said the current rise was tied to the weak dollar, speculation and temporary downtime in Alaska and the North Sea .

"Supplying the world's media with unrealistic assumptions and forecasts will serve only to confuse matters and create unnecessary fear in the markets," El-Badri said in written remarks. "The IEA must be consistent in their remarks."

The IEA didn't return a request for comments.

In its report, the IEA said that if oil becomes entrenched at $100 a barrel in 2011, global oil expenditures could rise to 5% of gross domestic product, a level associated with economic problems in the past.