China could beat the U.S. in the race to replace crude oil with a viable competitor, but the U.S. is more likely to create a greater number of alternative fuel breakthroughs, according to a report global technology consultant Accenture released Wednesday.

The world's first- and second-largest economies are taking divergent routes to cutting back dependence on foreign oil, both possibly yielding results that could reverberate around the globe. In the alternative energy arena, Beijing continues to focus most of the country's alternative energy investment and effort on developing batteries to fuel hybrid or all-electric cars and trucks and implementing the infrastructure needed to service such vehicles.

That focus could grow alternative energy usage in transportation faster in China than in the U.S., where the government is spreading its largesse around a greater number of emerging technologies and allowing the market to sort out which will proliferate.

"In China , alternative fuel disruption may come up faster, but the U.S. might find something that becomes a breakthrough," Melissa Stark, Accenture's global lead on clean energy, said in a telephone interview.

China sits on one of the world's largest reserves of lithium and its manufacturing sector enjoys advantages of scale and labor costs. All together, that allows it to make lithium batteries for an average of $7,400 each, more than 25% less than the world average, according to Accenture.

The U.S. Department of Energy has been more of an equal-opportunity gambler. In a country that is a world leader in corn and soybean production, grain-based biofuel production has so far enjoyed the greatest success. But the government has spread grants and other subsidies among a wider slate of emerging alternative energy sources, including algae, wind and advanced non-lithium batteries, while the private sector has also played a large role.

"There's a push on innovation--there's a lot of competition among technology that is pushed, but also resisted by, different groups," Stark said.

The two countries' approaches will eventually compete on a global stage. Different countries may have to either move their energy dependence from foreign-based crude oil to foreign-based lithium deposits, or license technology from the U.S. , Stark said.

One industry that will almost definitely be a loser will be the U.S. refining industry. Despite the current gains in crude oil futures and gasoline prices, U.S. gasoline demand is expected to fall by 30% by 2030, Stark said. So, as diesel appears to be emerging as the hydrocarbon fuel of choice for overseas markets, refiners who can't adapt will have to shrink operations or close.

Under that scenario, Valero Energy Corp. (VLO) could be an example of what awaits other U.S. fuel producers. The largest independent refiner in the country, Valero in the past few years has acquired 10 ethanol plants and part ownership in a pilot plant that makes fuel derived from wood. It also sold two oil refineries it considered no longer profitable.

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