For oil traders used to basing decisions on algorithms or equities, it's time to bone up on old-fashioned supply and demand--or exit gracefully.

Brent crude futures on the ICE futures exchange on Monday became the first major benchmark to trade above $100 a barrel in more than two years. It was a decisive break, with Brent, the main pricing benchmark in Europe and Asia , nearing $102 at one point yesterday.

Meanwhile, Nymex futures, the U.S. benchmark, jumped almost 8% in two days, and saw record volumes of nearly 1.5 million contracts traded on Friday.

The sudden spike in activity comes as swelling anti-government protests in the country that hosts vital oil transport links cleared aside the ambiguity that typically defines daily oil price moves. On Friday and Monday, there was no need to check the dollar's strength against the euro, or the 200-day moving average price to divine why oil futures were rocketing.

Traders' positions were increasingly determined by how they estimate the odds that Egypt 's protests threaten the shipment of oil through the Suez Canal and the operation of the Sumed pipeline.

"Something like this trumps everything else that people have been looking at in the markets, and the people that are in the market shift," said Kurt Kinker of Mirus Futures in Chicago . "There are traders that are going to jump at this, when there is an enormous amount of uncertainty ... but some people just can't stomach it."

Prices are down slightly Tuesday, though if the previous few sessions are any indication, the real action will come when U.S. trading picks up, around 1400 GMT. At 1150 GMT, March Brent futures traded down 0.6% at $100.43 a barrel, while Nymex futures were off 1% at $91.26 a barrel.

Oil prices often need a geopolitical crisis to kick up a level. In 2006, Israel 's brief war with Lebanon and a North Korean missile test spooked Nymex futures above $75 a barrel. In 2008, it was Nigerian militants sabotaging oil installations that set the stage for crude to trade in triple digits for the first time.

Whether Brent keeps rising, and Nymex futures join the European benchmark above $100, will be determined by how big Egypt 's protests get, and how far they spread.

"The direction of crude prices today will depend on how the demonstrations in Egypt go," said Christine Tuxen, a senior analyst at Danske Research.

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