ΕιδήσειςΕυρωπαϊκές Ειδήσεις IEA May Have Strayed From Mission In Oil Stock Release -Analysts dj Παρ, 24 Ιουνίου 2011 - 19:04
The release of 60 million barrels of oil from emergency stocks announced by the International Energy Agency Thursday has served consumers well by lowering oil prices, but the agency may have strayed from its original mission in ways that could weaken it in the future, industry analysts said Friday. By working to avoid economic damage posed by high oil prices, rather than simply responding to a sudden disruption in oil supplies as it has in the past, analysts say the IEA risks politicizing relations with major oil producers and, if there are further stock releases, becoming less able to deal with future supply disruptions. Thursday's move "seems to have deviated from the normal objective of the IEA--reacting to a shortage of oil," said Dominick Chirichella, analyst at the Energy Management Institute. The IEA was founded in 1974 to make oil consumers better prepared to respond to sudden disruptions, such as the Arab oil embargo a year earlier, when some major exporters stopped selling oil to the U.S. and several other countries because of their support for Israel in the Arab-Israeli war. Each of its 28 member countries now holds oil stocks equivalent to 90 days of imports as a safety net. For only the third time in its history, the IEA said Thursday it will tap this reserve, releasing 2 million barrels a day of crude oil and refined products onto the market for 30 days. Previous releases occurred soon after major oil supply disruptions--the first Gulf War in 1991 and Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The IEA said the latest release is meant to offset the loss of around 1.5 million barrels a day of crude exports from Libya , due to the civil war there. But many analysts asked why the IEA has decided to release stocks now, when the Libyan civil war started in February. "The IEA's move comes at a surprising time, as we have known about lost Libyan output for three to four months," said Caroline Bain of the Economist Intelligence unit. "It does look as though it is somewhat politically motivated." The price of oil has again become a big political issue, particularly in the U.S. where gasoline prices have touched $4 a gallon in recent months. Following the failure of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to agree a production increase earlier this month, pressure on Western governments to act to reduce prices has been increasing. "If it can get the price down at gasoline pumps in U.S. , then it's a wise political move," said Torbjorn Kjus, an oil market analyst at DnB NOR. "That should be good for [U.S. President Barack] Obama." Indeed, officials in the U.S. administration were quick to point out the key role the U.S. played, telling the Wall St Journal that President Obama and his advisers were the first to suggest the IEA release stocks and also smoothed its path with OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia . Senior officials at the IEA said Thursday's release wasn't politically motivated. "This is not an action that is primarily being dictated by prices," said David Fyfe, head of the Oil Industry and Markets Division of the IEA. "It's about a real and actual disruption within the market." "Earlier this year when the Libyan crisis broke, refiner crude demand was at a seasonal low and therefore the IEA didn't respond at that time," said Fyfe. "We're now moving into the seasonal high point of refiner crude demand," and extra oil, particularly of the high quality Libyan variety, is badly needed, he said. From next month, the world will need an extra 1.5 million barrels a day of oil supply as refiners kick into high gear, the IEA says. The 2 million barrels a day of oil to be released from stocks for 30 days will help cover this elevated demand, at least until extra oil production promised by Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries is available, Fyfe said. Nevertheless, analysts say there is a clear price motivation for the IEA's action. "The release of stocks suggests the IEA, as the representative of OECD consuming countries, wants prices to move decisively lower," said Helen Henton, head of Energy and Environment Research at Standard Chartered. Indeed, senior IEA officials have for months warned of the danger high oil prices pose to the world economy. "The global economy is still emerging from recession and it is essential that this recovery not be endangered by an oil supply shortage," said the agency's executive director, Nobuo Tanaka, as he announced the stock release. Herein lies the danger, analysts say. "The IEA is now in the business of being a central banker" to the oil market, said Chirichella. The market may come to view the emergency IEA stocks as just another source of extra oil supply, putting it in direct competition with the surplus production capacity held by OPEC, he said. "Hawks in OPEC may group together and possibly even cut back on production to offset the IEA release," said Chirichella. "If so it could result in a battle with the price of oil the main objective." Διαβάστε ακόμα Ρωσικό Γεράκι σε Ρόλο ...Λαγού «Πιέζει» τον Πούτιν για Χρήση Πυρηνικών Ενάντια σε Χώρες του ΝΑΤΟ Πεμ, 12 Σεπτεμβρίου 2024 - 09:32 Schneider Electric: Το ανανεωμένο WhiteSpacePortfolio για αποδοτικές εφαρμογές ΑΙ με υψηλή πυκνότητα ΙΤ φορτίου Πεμ, 12 Σεπτεμβρίου 2024 - 09:19 Φ. 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