OPEC Head Sees Gulf Producers Cutting Output As Libya Resumes

Gulf oil producers, already facing a weakening demand picture in 2011 and 2012, are expected to cut their output once Libya resumes production, OPEC's top official said Monday.

Secretary General Abdalla Salem el-Badri, a Libyan, told a forum here that Libya could reach pre-unrest production levels within 15 months, as few key facilities were damaged, and said he expects Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries to cut output once Libya 's production recovers, although he hasn't had any individual confirmation.

"When Libya will come to production, [Gulf] OPEC members will reduce their production...no doubt about it," he said. "Right now I don't see anything, but as long as Libya starts to produce more and more I'm sure member countries will cut. It is in their benefits."

El-Badri's comments come amid renewed concerns about the global economy. On Monday light, sweet crude futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange for delivery in October traded 1.6% lower at $86.58 a barrel at 0647 GMT, down $1.38 in the Globex electronic session. Brent crude was also lower.

El-Badri said Monday he sees rising negativity in the oil market amid greater concerns over weak U.S. growth, the European sovereign debt crisis and signs that the Chinese government will act aggressively to prevent overheating of its economy.

"There are a lot of precautions," el-Badri told the Gulf Intelligence energy forum. "Now we see that those negative elements are coming to the market."

El-Badri said he was surprised that crude oil prices are holding at current levels, which have a risk premium of $16-$20 a barrel priced in due to the current conditions of the global economy and as Western stimulus packages fail to generate jobs and economic activity.

The International Energy Agency and OPEC last week reduced their forecasts for oil demand, although they differed on the outlook for Libyan crude. OPEC gave a more optimistic prognosis for Libya and suggested that individual producers could cut back.

El-Badri, a former Libyan energy minister and head of its National Oil Corp., said there is no answer yet as to whether he would return and work in Libya 's oil industry after his term as OPEC secretary general ends, but said it was safe now for other oil experts to return to the country.

OPEC will recognize the National Transitional Council as Libya 's representative after the United Nations recognized it as the legitimate government.

El-Badri also said he wasn't happy about the IEA's decision in June to release of 60 million barrels of oil from emergency stocks to alleviate a shortage induced by the civil war in Libya , but said the IEA's new director had assured OPEC that it won't have any further oil stock releases.