Global refinery crude runs will be lower in the third and fourth quarters of 2011 than forecast last month, as maintenance in Asia and a fire at Royal Dutch Shell PLC's Pulau Bukom refinery in Singapore curtailed Asian refinery runs, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly oil market report Wednesday.

A full restart of Shell's 500,000 barrels a day refinery after the Sept. 28 fire is unlikely for at least another month, the IEA said.

Third quarter global runs are now expected to average 75.5 million barrels a day, 50,000 barrels a day less than forecast in September. Runs are seen reaching 75.3 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter, 75,000 barrels a day less than forecast earlier.

Higher throughputs in the U.S. , supported by strong refined product exports, only partly offset lower runs in Asia , the IEA said. But Asian runs could rise at the very end of the year, when new capacity is commissioned, the agency added.

In August, Japan showed the strongest increase in throughputs among developed economies, but runs fell in September as refineries started entering autumn maintenance season and amid a typhoon which delayed crude shipments, the IEA said.

China 's August runs were the second-lowest so far this year, but the restart of PetroChina's Dalian refinery at the beginning of September and the launch of new refining capacity elsewhere "will likely lead to higher runs at the end of the year," the report said.

The Paris-based energy watchdog said that refinery consolidation continues in the developed economies, as companies concluded or announced extended refinery sales and shutdowns in September, amounting to almost 1 million barrels a day.

With nearly 700,000 barrels a day of refining capacity for sale or to be shut down on the U.S. East Coast by the middle of the next year, crude oil and refined products trade dynamics could change significantly in 2012, the agency said.

"More light sweet crude from Nigeria and the North Sea would be available for other markets [about 300,000 barrels a day of each], while [ U.S. ] product import requirements could increase dramatically, potentially reversing the trend of rising exports noted above," the IEA said.

In Europe , run cuts have remained deeper than a year ago, partly due to weak refining economics, the agency said.

"While the loss of Libyan supplies since February prompted several refiners to undertake turnarounds earlier than planned, several plants are currently reducing runs or shutting altogether due to poor margins," the report said.

The agency cut global oil demand by 50,000 barrels a day for 2011 and by 210,000 barrels a day for 2012, citing weaker economic forecasts.

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