Global refining surplus could reach 10 million barrels a day by 2015 unless some refining capacity is closed, likely depressing refining margins, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its 2011 World Oil Outlook Tuesday.

Around 6.8 million barrels a day of new crude distillation capacity is expected to be added globally in 2011-15, half of which will be in the Asia-Pacific region, mainly in China and India , the group said.

"Today's refinery projects--and those assessed to come on stream in the next few years--potentially represent a substantial proportion of the total additions that will actually be needed over the next 10-to-15 years," OPEC said.

Meanwhile, U.S. , European and Japanese refineries are seeing reduced demand for oil products they produce and are expected to face the highest number of closures in the current market conditions, OPEC said.

But the group added that so far there have been relatively few closures, as "the emphasis at present is on selling--or at least attempting to sell--refineries."

OPEC estimates that $425 billion will be required to invest in refinery processing around the world in the period to 2015.

"Almost $210 billion comprises the cost of known projects, $65 billion covers further process unit additions--revamps and de-bottlenecking or creep, as well as major new units--and $150 billion is for ongoing maintenance," the body said.

Domestic demand is the main driver of investments in the Asia-Pacific's refining capacity, while in the Middle East and Latin America , the other two regions with highest capacity additions to 2015, it is a combination of domestic demand and a trend to expand refining capacity to process heavy domestic crudes, OPEC said.

In Europe , investment in crude distillation capacity expansion is limited to specific needs in some parts of the continent. No expansion is expected in Northern Europe , while some refineries, mainly in Western Europe , are either for sale, being converted to storage terminals, or face closure, the group said.

The U.S. and Canada will need around $70 billion of investment, half of which is for capacity maintenance, OPEC said.

The group also noted that "the role of refining in total liquids products supply gradually shrinks in proportionate terms, courtesy of the possibilities for rising biofuels and non-crude supplies."

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