U.S. anti-subsidy tariffs on Chinese exports of solar panels are unlikely to slow the pace at which Chinese companies are capturing U.S. market share, but they will likely slow their sales in the U.S. in the short term, Fitch Ratings said Monday.

"We believe the initial tariff duties of 2.9%-4.3% imposed by the Commerce Department are quite low and therefore represent more of a warning than a barrier that could significantly affect the Chinese companies' ability to compete in the U.S. market," the ratings company said in a research report.

The duties will likely slow solar sales in the U.S in the short term and hurt Chinese downstream exporters' cash flow, the report said. However, the duties are "unlikely to change the momentum of Chinese success in winning market share and driving down prices."

However, a second preliminary ruling by the U.S. Commerce Department, expected in May, might result in more restrictive duties and penalties on Chinese exporters, Fitch said in the report.

Last week the U.S. Commerce Department ruled in favor of US solar firms that accused Chinese solar manufacturers of receiving unfair government subsidies. A second preliminary decision, including on allegations of dumping by Chinese firms, is scheduled for May.

Final decisions on the issue will rest with the U.S. International Trade Commission, and are not likely to be made until toward the end of 2012.

Fitch expects consolidation of the solar industry is likely to continue in 2012 after several manufacturers in North America filed for bankruptcy due to industry oversupply and competition with Chinese manufacturers.

"The winners will be those who can lower costs the fastest, and clearly the Chinese companies are in an advantageous position," Fitch said,

Large upstream companies such as GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd., who are cost leaders, will likely dominate and squeeze out smaller competitors, Fitch said.

Leading Chinese solar companies such as Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (STP) , Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. (YGE) and Trina Solar Ltd. (TSL) have all expressed their determination to push forward sales in the U.S. market despite the decision.

China now accounts for about half of the world's solar panel and module production. The U.S. accounted for only 7% of global output in 2010, the report said.

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