A top adviser to China 's economic planning agency says the country's shale gas production could reach between 20 billion and 30 billion cubic meters a year by 2020--a much more conservative estimate than the government's official forecast.

China plans to sharply increase natural gas output in the coming decade by following the example of the United States , where hydraulic fracturing technology has spurred a shale gas boom in recent years.

"Production could reach 20 to 30 billion cubic meters a year by 2020," Zhou Fengqi, senior adviser of the energy research institute at China's National Development and Reform Commission, said in an interview late Wednesday.

That estimate is significantly lower than the official forecast of 60 billion to 100 billion cubic meters set by the government earlier this year.

"It's very hard to predict, because we've just started exploring," said Mr. Fengqi.

China recently set a target to produce 6.5 billion cubic meters a year of shale gas by 2015, up from virtually zero this year. It expects to rapidly increase production by 2020.

Exploration of shale gas reserves in the U.S. has already transformed the global energy balance. The country is now a potential exporter of liquefied natural gas to world markets, while just a few years ago, exporters were targeting the U.S. as a major import market.

Initial estimates show China 's shale gas reserves to be even larger than in the U.S. However, China still lacks the know-how and infrastructure to begin large-scale production, while there are also issues such as water supply and the bigger depth of the shale formation.

"It will be difficult and more expensive to get it out of the ground," said Mr. Fengqi

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