As BP PLC gears up to report on Tuesday on its performance in the last quarter of 2012, it appears on the surface at least that the oil giant has much to cheer after a difficult 2 1/2 years.

It has sold its stake in its troublesome, though lucrative, Russian joint venture and has completed its massive $38 billion divestment program a year early. It has settled criminal charges with the U.S. Justice Department over the April 2010 Deepwater Horizon disaster, and the recent approval of that $4 billion settlement by a U.S. district court judge in New Orleans closes the door on all federal criminal charges.

But BP still faces a potentially costly battle with the U.S. government over civil penalties for the pollution unleashed in the Deepwater Horizon disaster that resulted in the worst offshore oil spill in U.S. history.

In the worst-case scenario, if BP is found grossly negligent in the trial, which is scheduled to begin Feb. 25 in New Orleans and is expected to take at least a year, it could be liable under the Clean Water Act for a maximum fine of around $21 billion for the 4.9 million barrels of oil the U.S. government says was spilled.

"This is a huge shackle on the company, and they're not going to be able to move freely until it's resolved," said Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Fadel Gheit. The penalty could be so substantial as to damage the company financially, he added.

BP has already spent or committed to spend $36.5 billion in cleanup costs, criminal fines and settlements with individuals and businesses harmed by the spill. Around $24 billion of that has already been paid out with the remaining -- about $12.5 billion -- to be paid out over a number of years.

There is also a worry that the penalties for BP could include denying it access to the highly lucrative Gulf of Mexico , where BP has significant operations, Mr. Gheit said.

BP is already under a temporary ban from obtaining new contracts with the U.S. government. This includes the barring of BP from bidding for any new leases in the Gulf of Mexico .

While BP has been talking to the Environmental Protection Agency, which imposed the temporary suspension in November, BP said that it could take some time to reach an administrative agreement with the EPA on this issue.

It isn't just BP's Gulf of Mexico ambitions that are on hold.

Potential plans to use some of the cash from the $26.8 billion cash-and-shares deal with Russia 's state-controlled oil company OAO Rosneft to reward investors with a special dividend or a share buyback could be delayed, as BP may not want to release billions of dollars back to shareholders before the scale of the civil penalties is clear, say some investors.

The lack of a settlement is also continuing to weigh on the company's share price, which is still down around 28% below where it was trading before the Deepwater Horizon rig exploded in the Gulf of Mexico .

Investors have been hoping for a settlement before the trial commences later this month. But time is running out and BP has indicated that it is preparing vigorously for trial.

"People can take good or bad news, but they can't take uncertainty," said Paul Mumford, senior fund manager at Cavendish Asset Management, and a BP shareholder.

"The best course would be for it to be done and dusted even if the terms were slightly disappointing," added Mr. Mumford.

Διαβάστε ακόμα