Brent crude oil prices will stay in the $100-130/bbl range on average
through 2015 while rising shale gas output in the
U.S.
creates a risk of $50/bbl for Nymex crude in the next 18-24 months, analysts at
BofA Merrill Lynch say in a note.
The bank said Brent crude-oil prices are
unlikely to fall below an average of $80/bbl owing to rising production costs,
rising budget break-even levels for OPEC countries and higher consumption if
prices fall. World-wide economic activity is set to rebound strongly in 2014
and expand at a rate of 4-4.5% until 2017 in line with growth rates, BofA says.
"This acceleration in global GDP growth is set to boost oil demand growth
significantly given the high beta of oil consumption relative to GDP,"
BofA says. It expects global oil demand growth of 1.3 mln b/d on average,
between 2014-17, up from 940,000 in 2013. Nymex crude is down 41c to $95.45/bbl,
Brent is down 2c at $117.36/bbl.