“I would hope Putin is still capable of serious calculations, rather than having gone completely insane.”
On Friday, New Europe received in its TV studios Michael Emerson, a former EU ambassador to Moscow, presently associate research fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels, for an analytical discussion about the situation in Ukraine and EU’s attitude towards Russia. The first question was whether the EU had done enough, except for verbal threats directed at the Kremlin and promises of billions in loans and grants to Ukraine?
Michael Emerson :I think those who are dismissive towards the sanctions process are missing something. The first step is a list of rather symbolic sanctions, indeed, but it is clear from official statements that if Russia says yes to Crimea secession, or if it decides to invade Eastern Ukraine, then there would be a huge step-up in the sanctions. And there is a perception inside Russia that not everybody is happy with the present drift.
NE: You mean the Russian oligarchs could turn against Putin, feeling that in case of a war, or deterioration of the situation, their own interests might suffer?
ME:Not only the oligarchs, but even politicians like Aleksey Kudrin, the former finance minister, who is widely seen as a potential future prime minister, has said that the effect of Western sanctions on Russian economy can quickly become devastating, by cutting off Russian banks and enterprises from major Western funding. This could easily drive Russia into recession and cause a lot of damage. Then comes the question whether Putin would still remain popular in the Russian public opinion.
NE: Coming to the 11 billion euros the EU promised to Ukraine, a package that looks strangely similar to the 15 billion dollars package that Putin promised to Yanukovych back in December (15 billion dollars = 11 billion euros): where will this money come from?
ME:It is indeed a strange confidence, the 11 billion to 15 billion package… especially after Barroso has said so many times that “we won’t get into an auction” with Ukraine. Well, 1.5 billion are grants, on the EU Commission budget. Another 1.5 billion are part of a micro-financial assistance that the EU is paying together with the IMF...
NE: Money that Ukraine will have to pay back?
ME¨Yes. Then we have 3 billions from the EIB, and another big chunk of 5 billion from the EBRD in London, which isn’t owned by the EU, but it still is majority-owned by it.
NE: But how can one sell in Europe the idea of giving so many billions to Ukraine when some people in a country like Greece are queuing up for free soup and bread?
ME:It is very simple. We have to decide whether in a case like Ukraine we are dealing with an expanding domain of a renewed Soviet Union, or whether it is an expanding domain of democracy and human rights. People should understand this.
NE: How about the comparison with Kosovo?
ME:This is clearly an abuse of the facts. In the case of Kosovo, the people had suffered a grave injustice. Milosevic had embarked on a campaign that was credibly coming close to genocide. External intervention was fully justified. But all that is completely irrelevant for Crimea.There has been no abuse of the rights of the Russians in Crimea. The only documented abuses have been against the original Tatar population of Crimea, and Tatars, who have been deported under Stalin, have indeed all the reasons to fear a new Russian domination.
NE: Can NATO do something to stop Putin from annexing Crimea?
ME:No. The question of whether Putin should be met with military action from the West is simply off the table, even if by international standards, Putin’s actions over Crimea are already at the level that would have provoked the Second World War.
NE: It has been said that Putin cannot be stopped, simply because he might have gone mad, or cannot back off because of the fear of losing face.
ME:I would hope that he is still capable of serious calculations. After all, he comes from the analytical department of the KGB. So, he should still receive and digest information. I hope that this is still the case, rather than having gone insane.