The European Commission plans to hold the next Russia-EU-Ukraine ministerial meeting to resolve the Kiev-Moscow gas dispute this autumn, preferably next month, a spokesperson for EU Energy Commissioner Günther Oettinger told New Europe on August 12.
“The Commission’s aim is to have a next trilateral meeting taking place in autumn, preferably September. But no concrete date has ever been scheduled yet,” the spokesperson said.
Trilateral talks took place from April until mid-June, but did not yield any significant results. Russian gas monopoly Gazprom switched to a prepayment system for gas deliveries to Ukraine on June 16 because of an outstanding $5.3 billion debt.
Europe relies on Russia for one-third of its oil and gas. The fuel currently flows mainly through Ukraine.
Experts anticipate problems in winter, when Kiev is expected to run out of its own gas reserves.
“The possibility of new gas crisis is very serious because there is still no solution to this problem,” Konstantin Simonov, head of Russia’s National Energy Security Fund (NESF) in Moscow, toldNew Europe. “We see that we stopped our gas supply to Ukraine on June 16,” he said, adding that there is still no solution to the gas dispute between Russia and Ukraine.
“There are even no negotiations. The winter is closer and closer and nobody speaks about this. It’s a very strange situation. For Ukraine now the main problem is war. [Ukrainian President Petro] Pososhenko, of course, does not want to solve gas problem. But for Europe it’s a serious risk. And of course if Ukraine begins to steal the gas from the pipes it means that Russia will stop the supply to Europe,” Simonov argued.
“It can be a very serious situation because I remember the situation in January 2009. It was a huge problem. And now we’ll have sanctions plus a new gas crisis in Ukraine so it can be a very dangerous combination,” Simonov said.
TheUS andthe EU have introduced sanctions over Russia’s role inthe Ukraine crisis. Moscow responded last week bybanning food imports fromthe United States, European Union, Australia, Canada andNorway, with Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev threatening further counter-sanctions if theWest presses ahead with more penalties.
But Natalya Orlova, chief economist at Russia’sAlfa Bank, toldNew Europe that it’s unlikely Russia’s counter measures would extend in the energy sector.
“The energy product will not be the next step. In case of deterioration, Russia can also potentially ban some non-food items,” Orlova said. “Energy sector will be the last that will pass because this is a big portion of Russian exports,” she said. “Anything related to energy, it’s very politically related – it’s about energy security, which would be a very strong hit,” she added.
Meanwhile, Simonov claimed that Kiev is in no hurry to solve the Ukraine-Russia gas dispute. “In my opinion, Ukraine even doesn’t want to find a solution because if the situation will be more difficult. for Ukraineit will be easier to take something from the Europeans. That is why Ukraine now is thinking that gas problem is not the problem of Ukraine, it’s the problem of Europe and Europe must solve it with Russia and that situation is extremely dangerous,” Simonov said.
Meanwhile, the European Commission has asked EU member states to perform Stress Tests on the vulnerability of its energy systems to interruptions of gas supplies coming from Russia via Ukraine and submit these reports by end of August. It will then assess them and present conclusions together with possible recommendations/proposals in time for the European Council on 23-24 October, the spokesperson for Oettinger told New Europe on August 12.
“Work on the stress test is ongoing,” she said, reminding that atthe last European Council of EU leaders welcomed the Commission’s European Energy Security Strategy and supported the immediate implementation of a set of most urgent measures to strengthen Europe’s resilience and increase its energy security in the short term, before the coming winter.
http://www.neurope.eu/article/russia-eu-energy-frenemies