Greece has reached the point of no return with only two options left;either to compromise or to confront its EU partners, with the government having finally understood the real situation and the Greeks still living in their wonderland.
This is a real issue for the government and it is a difficult matter to address. Indeed the majority of the Greeks live in such a nirvana that they will only understand reality onthe day they will go to an ATM and will not be able to withdraw more that €300 per week while half of the bank deposits will be transformed in …state bonds.
Then they will understand. How they will react and what impact such reaction may have, is the subject of an other story.
So far both sides are holding extreme, intransigent positions but in view of a potential breakdown, it seems that while Germany is driving the EU, both they and the Greeks are willing to reconsider.
At this moment, despite the Greek rhetoric, the EU and the Greeks are looking for an honest way out, as confrontation would mean Greece’s exit from the European Union, after an exit from the Euro and, perhaps, bankruptcy.
This will be catastrophic for Greece and potentially lethal for the European construction.
So far, the justified intransigence of both parties did not allow anymeaningful understanding. In a move aiming at reaching a compromise, Chancellor Angela Merkel invited the Greek PM Alexis Tsipras to Berlin for next Monday, March 23. On his side, Alexis Tsipras asked today (Thursday March 19) for a meeting with selected leaders including the Germans, French and the presidents of the Institutions but excluding all others, something that generated a lot of reactions.
The Greek government, with no experience and understanding of international negotiations, thought that the fresh popular mandate it got was sufficient to override the vested interests of Greece’s lenders.
In reality they are very much alike Christopher Columbus, the first socialist in history. When he departed he did not know where he was heading to, when he arrived he did not know where he was and he did all this with the money of others. Indeed, Queen Isabella provided his ship, Santa Maria, and she also financed the trip.
On the opposite side, the lenders were convinced that any concession under the unfounded arguments of the Greeks (i.e. the fresh popular mandate) would open the door for all other EU Member States in difficulty to ask and obtain the same concessions. The acceptance of the Greek arguments would also favour the rise of the neo-communist forces in Europe, parties similar to that of the Greek Syriza.
The next five days will be most crucial as the moment of the truth is coming, with Greece at a dead-end with no cash and the European Union about to be forced to deal with the potential spill over effects of serious social unrest in a Member State, should situation in Athens gets out of control. Thus both sides know that they must find an understanding.
Understanding means that both sides should define the differences and, in a give-and-take negotiation, agree on a damage limitation framework that will allow the re-integration of Greece and its problems, to the European family.
What the two parties want
Greece wants to avoid bankruptcy, remain in the European Union and the Euro, get help to restore the economy and save face.
The European Union wants to keep Greece in the European family without creating precedents for other Member States while discouraging a left turn of the European electorate.
The key for a compromise will be for the European Union to find a good excuse that would allow some concessions to the Greeks. This could be the geopolitical importance of Greece, which affects strategic interests of the EU and NATO,
In return, Greece should make the necessary structural changes that were not made in the past five years. This can't be done by the present government as it is a government which included all the components of Syriza (all kinds of leftists). Thus Greece, should form a new coalition government, based on the two big parties of the country, Syriza and Nea Dimikratia, yet open to other parties willing to join the alliance, such as ANEL, PASOK and Potami. It will be a grand coalition, which will address the structural changes necessary to permanently pass from recession to development.
The winner of the election
Key to enter the grand coalition is to correctly assess the recent Greek election result.
So far Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras was convinced by his party apparatchiks that the winner of the election was the Greek Left. Syriza is a party of leftist components, all kinds of leftists. From moderate who believe in a state fair to all to ultra-communist who are looking to revitalize the Great October Revolution.
It is this leftist attitude of the government that led Greece to break its relations with the Eurogroup and keep Greece out of the benefits other European countries are getting at the moment.
In this period, Europe entered in very promising times. Mario Draghi, despite the complaints of Germany, is after all printing money and distributing to Member States in exchange of state bonds releases. Under the circumstances, the Euro is going down and with cheap oil prices, Europe is boosting its exports, reducing unemployment and creating the conditions to pass from recession to development. All countries of the European South are taking advantage of this new situation triggered by Draghi’s political initiative, except Greece.
However, Alexis Tsipras has now the point of understanding what is a common secret in Brussels and Berlin. That he himself won the election, not the left. The left just happened to be there with him at the right moment. It was an irrelevant coincidence.
Alexis Tsipras won the election because he was what the Greeks want, young, promising and uncorrupt.
The grand coalition
The grand coalition is not only possible but, according to Brussels circles, is the best choice the Greeks have to get through the present deadlock.
It seems that the basic components of the coalition will be Syriza and Nea Dimokratia plus any other willing to join except for the far right and the communists. This will lead to a generous government reshuffle with the replacement of Finance Minister (the Greek negotiator with Eurogroup) Yianis Varoufakis, a personality hated by the Germans, with an accepted moderate character from Syriza such as Yiannis Dragasakis, while eliminating all neo-communist “components” from the government.
http://www.neurope.eu/article/five-days-condor