Vienna. On Friday, the talks between Iran, the United States, Germany, France, Russia and China are entering what is considered the climax of a week-long negotiation process. In fact, this is more like the climax of a two-year long negotiation process, which gained new momentum since the coming to power of Iran’s new President, Hassan Rouhani, in August 2013.
For this last sprint round, the EU’s foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, will also be joining.
The talks are taking place at headquarters of the International Atomic Energy Agency and all parties are now dealing with the thorniest issue of all. Who will verify that any agreement made will be honored, that is, who will have the mandate to probe Iran and what that mandate will entail. The key term being discussed here is “managed access” that will include military facilities, with the main issue of course being who will “manage” and who will “access.”
In addressing this question, the IAEA director, Yukiya Amano, is holding parallel talks in Tehran to deal with “technical issues” of probing that in the past have derailed the negotiation process. Iran will accept IAEA inspectors which, to Tehran’s satisfaction, will not be spies.
In Vienna, Iran’s Foreign Minister and the US Secretary of State, John Kerry, occupy center stage in ongoing negotiations since last Saturday. Joint statements thus far speak of “progress” and hard work. Iran has ever admitted that its nuclear programme had military objectives, arguing a “misinformation” campaign by the CIA and Mossad, as well as IAEA that is considered by Tehran as anything but neutral. This is why Amano’s parallel visit to Tehran is critically important.
The Ruhani administration has shown it is investing a lot in the success of the Vienna talks.
On Monday, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Muhammad Javad Zarif, departed from Tehran to Vienna along with the Director of the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program, Ali Akbar Salehi, and Hossein Fereydoon, the brother and aide of the President Hassan Rouhani. He was in fact coming back to Vienna.
On Sunday evening, he had returned to Tehran for consultation, for what is widely regarded as an attempt to agree on his negotiating mandate. He came back one day earlier than expected. That was either a very good or a very bad sign.
Most people thing it is a good sign. In Teheran, public opinion has many expectations from the Vienna talks. The Foreign Minister, Javad Zarif, is considered as spearheading the reformist camp of the Islamic Republic. The deal in Vienna, if it comes to fruition, could embolden that camp given its positive consequences on growth, employment and prices. The toll of the sanctions on opportunities for business, travel, and study has been heavy. A government that concludes a deal will be inevitably popular.
Of course, the reformist camp now has control of the government, but not total control of the decision-making process. And precisely because a deal would signal a change in the domestic balance of power, a number of people are not optimistic. Others are, because this means that the negotiating team is fully committed.
The Washington atmosphere appears similar. The Obama Administration is on the final sprint and whatever happens now will mark the President’s legacy. As in the case of normalizing relations with Cuba, this is the time to be bold, if there was ever any.
Mr Obama has supported the 5+1 negotiating format. And he is trying to protect Vienna from Washington. “If Congress kills this deal not based on expert analysis, and without offering any reasonable alternative,” he said, “then it’s the United States that will be blamed for the failure of diplomacy.”
The Congress can try to kill whatever deal comes out by means of hearings (taking time), by means of withholding funds (budget), or by trying to block the wave of sanctions against Iran. The latter would be hard, because to override a President, hawkish Republicans would need Democratic votes. They are not likely to get many. But, the government of Israel is lobbying as hard as it can to derail the process.
And in a presidential campaign atmosphere still in the open primary phase, there will be a lot of heated talk. The Republican Presidential aspirant, Senator Marco Rubio, has already tried to undermine both the negotiating framework and the objectives of the deal; Republican Presidential aspirant, Gov Scott Walker of Wisconsin, said he would renege any deal with Iran; Representative Michael McCaul, of Texas, has made statements to the same effect. In sum, derailing Vienna has become a favorite “loyalty test” to conservatism and tough security talk for Republicans, who incidentally are thrilled about attacking the Obama legacy. Still, not every Republican Senator is running for the Presidency – although many are – and not all are “hawkish.”
Vienna has a chance in Washington and Tehran. Therefore, it has a chance.
http://www.neurope.eu/article/a-nuclear-deal-with-iran-has-a-chance/