Global oil demand growth is seen rising 2% annually through 2011, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday, in a forecast that is more optimistic about the rate of future energy consumption compared with previous five-year periods, because of rapid growth in Asia.
World oil consumption growth is expected to rise on average by 1.8 million barrels a day over the five-year period, from 84.5 million barrels a day in 2006 to 93.3 million barrels a day in 2011, the Paris-based IEA forecast in its medium-term report for 2006-2011.
The 2% annually growth rate in consumption compares with growth of 1.8% in 2001-2006, and 1.4% in the 1996-2001 period.
The 2006-2011outlook assumes a downward revision in consumption of 385,000 barrels a day due to high energy prices, fuel substitution in industrialized countries and changes to U.S. economic growth, the agency said.
The IEA is the energy security watchdog for the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development grouping of mostly industrialized nations.
"It's a bit more optimistic (demand) outlook (relative to past five-year periods)" said Lawrence Eagles, who heads the IEA's oil industry and markets division.
"(Developing countries like China and India) are the driving force. They are essentially consuming oil at three times the rate of (developed countries)," he added.
Oil production growth from non-OPEC countries like Russia is expected to rise by 1.3 million b/d over the five-year period even after accounting for a downward revision of 1.8% in total production from those countries to 62.3 million b/d in 2011.
Spare oil production from the 12-nation Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is seen rising to between 3.4 million b/d and 5.2 million b/d by 2011, up from an average of 2.2 million b/d in 2006.
Rapid growth from China, India and other developing countries in Asia and the Middle East will dilute some of that expected rise in spare oil production capacity.
Because of this, the IEA said, oil producing nations and international oil companies need to continue to sink money into new capacity over the next several years.
The IEA said Chinese oil consumption growth is expected to rise annually by 5.7%, more three times the oil demand growth pace in the U.S., while Middle East countries as a whole will use oil at an average annual rate of 4.9%.
(Dow Jones Newswires, 06/02/2007)