The average Brent crude price in 2013 will likely be $125/bbl, while
Nymex crude may average $115/bbl, after factoring in market balances and a
"faster pace of international geopolitics in 2013 and greater market
attention to the geopolitical background" compared with 2012, Barclays
says.
Its view of a conservative oil price rally, with the market ignoring
geopolitics, involves a third-quarter price average of $107/bbl for Brent and
fourth-quarter average of $117/bbl this year; it expects Nymex crude to average
$91/bbl in the third quarter and $98/bbl in the fourth quarter.
"The
growth in global oil demand is expected to be 1.16 million barrels a day,"
Barclays says in a note, adding that Japanese demand growth is expected to be
close to zero in 2013, while demand is expected to rise by a thin 0.07 million
B/D in the U.S. and 0.5 million B/D in China. Nymex crude is down 85 cents at
$86.37/bbl; Brent is down 86 cents at $99.84/bbl.