U.S. government officials, citing new intelligence, said Iran
has developed plans to disrupt international oil trade, including
through attacks on oil platforms and tankers.
Officials said the information suggests Iran
could take action against facilities both inside and outside the
Persian Gulf, even absent an overt military conflict.
The findings came as American officials closely watch Iran
for its reaction to punishing international sanctions and to a drumbeat
of Israeli threats to bomb Tehran's nuclear sites, while talks aimed at
preventing Iran
from developing nuclear weapons have slowed.
Analysts have said Iran,
which denies it is developing nuclear weapons, may be looking for
options to push back as it comes under growing pressure and finds its
most critical ally, the Syrian regime, focused internally on its own
struggle for survival.
The Pentagon several times has warned Tehran over its threats
to close the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial oil-shipment point, and U.S.
officials and analysts said Iranian officials apparently believe that
mining the narrow strait would invite a U.S. attack on their forces.
But U.S. officials said some Iranians believe they could
escape a direct counterattack by striking at other oil facilities,
including those outside the Persian Gulf, perhaps by using its elite
forces or external proxies.
"Iran
is very unpredictable," said a senior defense official. "We have been
very clear what we as well as the international community find
unacceptable."
The latest findings underscore why many military officials
continue to focus on Iran
as potentially the most serious U.S. national-security concern in the
region, even as the crisis in Syria has deepened and other conflicts, as
in Libya, have raged.
Defense officials cautioned there is no evidence that Tehran
has moved assets in position to disrupt tankers or attack other sites,
but stressed that Iran's
intent appears clear.
The officials wouldn't describe the intelligence or its
sources, but analysts said statements in the Iranian press and by
lawmakers in Tehran suggest the possibility of more-aggressive action in
the Persian Gulf as a response to the new sanctions. Iranian oil sales
have dropped and prices have remained low, pinching the government.
Spokesmen for the Defense Department and the Central
Intelligence Agency declined to comment on the existence of any
intelligence related to Iranian attacks on the oil industry. Iranian
officials didn't respond to a request to comment.
The U.S. military has used the new intelligence in internal
war-games exercises to simulate how the international community would
respond to an attack on an oil tanker, refinery or other part of the
energy-transportation system.
"It wouldn't be surprising to anyone if the Iranian regime was
weighing a list of possible responses in the Gulf," said a U.S.
official. "This doesn't mean they would do something, as there are
significant costs the Iranians would have to consider, but this is
something to keep an eye on."
The decision by officials to discuss the new intelligence
privately is intended in part to deter Iran.
Senior officials said Iranian officials would be making an error in
judgment by disrupting energy markets.
"They have to know this would provoke some sort of response,"
said a senior defense official.
The Defense Department has taken several recent steps to
bolster its presence in the region, including plans for a 20-nation
antimine exercise in September and orders to beef up the presence of
U.S. aircraft carriers.
Tehran has disrupted international oil supplies in the past,
most notably during the Iran-Iraq
war in the 1980s. In 1987, the U.S. began patrolling the Persian Gulf
and Iran
began mining the waters to slow warships and halt Arab oil exports.
Short of trying to close the strait, Iran
could restrict oil flows by attacking a new United Arab Emirates
pipeline, Bahrain's oil refinery or Saudi ports, officials and analysts
said.
"The worst-case scenario is the Iranians decide to attack
shipping to spook the market and do it in such a way that would not
generate an overwhelming response," said Christopher Harmer, a former
planner with the U.S. Fifth Fleet and a senior naval analyst at the
Institute for the Study of War.
Defense analysts said Iran
has been training its Quds Force, a unit of the Revolutionary Guards,
to conduct underwater terror attacks using frogmen. Tehran also could
turn to Shiite militants in other countries including Iraq, Saudi
Arabia, Bahrain and the U.A.E.
Some U.S. officials said they believe Iranian plans to disrupt
the oil trade have intensified in the past month, as international
sanctions now in place constrain their oil exports.
"Iran
is in a worse situation as a result of sanctions; they have lower
volume and lower prices," said Frank Verrastro, director of the Center
for Security and International Studies' energy and national security.
The sanctions, he said, could bring Iran
to the table, or it could push them over the edge. "And that is the
delicate balance folks are concerned about."