Even
accounting for faltering oil demand from China, global refinery runs in
the period from July to September will be even greater this year than
last, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly oil market
report Friday.
"Despite
the weak runs in China over the last few months and our lower outlook,
we're still touching year ago levels if not higher," said Toril Bosoni, a
senior oil market analyst at the International Energy Agency. "Runs are
relatively healthy in several other parts of the world and we expect
year-on-year growth to come back in the third quarter with healthier
runs."
The
IEA forecast shows that despite concerns about growth in emerging
economies, such as China, demand from there is still growing and
refining margins still have room to improve. China's crude intake is
likely to increase in the coming months, just at a slower pace than
previously expected because of high inventories there and faltering
domestic demand, Ms. Bosoni said.
Refinery
runs overall have been relatively robust so far this year, expected at
75.5 million barrels a day in the third quarter and are likely to
continue to rise in August, according to the report.
The
annual growth in global refinery runs continues to stem from developing
countries, with two-thirds of growth in the second quarter from
non-Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries.
Russia and India, in particular, reported high crude intake, the IEA
said.
In
the U.S., refinery runs have been particularly strong in the run-up to
the driving season this year, Ms. Bosoni said. Product exports have been
key to supporting runs. In January to May his year, U.S. exports have
surged almost 400,000 barrels a day year-on-year, mostly targeting Latin
America and Europe.
West
Coast crude runs, however, are expected to decline from current levels
in August after a fire at Chevron Corp.'s (CVX) 245,000 barrel-a-day
refinery, which could force the plant to shut for several months.
In
Europe, regional runs should rise seasonally in August, though in the
U.K., they will drop. The shutdown of the Petroplus Coryton refinery,
which had a capacity of 220,000 barrels a day, will lower available
capacity in the coming months, the IEA said.