Energy has already been a key feature of the presidential campaign so
far, even if gasoline prices fell from their springtime peak.
Barack Obama has given his "all-of-the-above" energy speech
all over the place; Mitt Romney has prominently toured the new American
oil patch to assail the Obama administration's policies. There's that
Solyndra case. And Mr. Romney's own solar push as governor. Political
fact-checker types have a macro installed for debunking specious claims
about energy.
A new report out Monday from Harvard University's Belfer
Center for Science and International Affairs should throw some more
gasoline on the fire. Far from the worry over "peak oil" that helped
define the 2008 presidential election amid record-high oil prices, the
world is practically swimming in the stuff, the report says.
Penned by Leonardo Maugeri, a former executive at Italy's ENI
who's spent years arguing that technology will unleash a new wave of
oil production, the report offers plenty of ammunition for pro-drilling
forces. In a nutshell, thanks to new drilling techniques, once
off-limits oil fields in the U.S. could yield millions of barrels of oil
a day over the next decade, turning the country in the world's
second-largest oil producer.
"The shale/tight oil boom in the United States is not a
temporary bubble, but the most important revolution in the oil sector in
decades," he wrote. Greater U.S. production of those so-called
unconventional oils will spur job creation and boost energy security,
the report concludes, though it won't insulate the U.S. from global
price swings in the oil market or Middle East problems.
Mr. Maugeri has made many of the same arguments for years. But
now, oil-production data is backing him up. The Eagle Ford shale play
in Texas, for example, went from zero production to 300,000 barrels a
day by December. Other fields have expanded even more dramatically.
It's a stark contrast to the 2008 election, when record-high
oil prices and worries about declining oil production in key countries
prompted so much angst about the energy future. Republicans coined
"Drill, baby, drill," while Mr. Obama championed a broader approach to
energy policy that favored renewable energy, electric cars and
alternative fuels.
As president, Mr. Obama has embraced some traditional energy
production: U.S. oil production has risen on his watch, and is at the
highest point in 14 years, and he has embraced the related boom in
natural-gas production. But he has also doubled down on clean energy,
still hopes to promote more electric cars, and nixed some
oil-infrastructure projects, such as the Keystone XL pipeline, that are
important to gird the U.S. oil boom.
The Harvard report does offer one area for pro-drilling
conservatives and environmentally conscious liberals to come together.
Noting that political risk, not geology, is the biggest threat to future
oil production, Mr. Maugeri writes: "A revolution in environmental and
emission-curbing technologies is required to sustain the development of
most unconventional oils--along with a strong enforcement of existing
rules. Without such a revolution, a continuous clash between the
industry and environmental groups will force the governments to delay or
constrain the development of new projects."