Optimism is not abundant and no one will be wishing the US Secretary of State, John Kerry, to “break a leg.” Confirming a statement by Iran’s Forein Minister, Javad Zerif, on Monday, the US Secretary of State admitted on Thursday that a nuclear deal may not be wrapped up by June 30thas initially envisaged.
Just prior to arriving to Vienna on Friday, the US Secretary of State lowered expectations from the P5+1 talks with Iran, that is, UN Permanent Security Council Members (US, UK, France, Russia, China) plus Germany. The Iranian Foreign Minister is expected in Vienna of Saturday, June 27th, along with the Foreign Minister of France, Laurent Fabius.
The current negotiation roadmap was drawn in April in Lausanne, Switzerland, but all parties are talking about a delay rather than a derailment. The Lausanne framework envisaged the downsizing of Iran’s nuclear activity, making a nuclear weapon all but impossible, whilst ending sanctions. Primarily, the focus is on reducing centrifuges enriching uranium, changing the design of a new reactor, and an agreement on inspections of all relevant facilities.
Secretary Kerry addressed reporter cautioning that he was not “conferring optimism,” but that he was “hopeful.” It is widely thought that negotiations with Iran were reinvigorated since the election of Iran’s new President, Hassan Rouhani, in 2013. The Iranian Administration is thought to be dealing with much criticism at home, both by the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and a rather conservative parliament. A key disagreement of Ali Khamenei is on the inspection of military facilities. The French Foreign Minister noted earlier this month that no inspection meant no deal.
Meanwhile, the U.S has devoted considerable diplomatic capital in view of a final agreement, facing up to serious criticism in Israel as well as the US Senate. Secretary Kerry unveiled a highly critical annual rights report on human right standards in Iran, the timing of which maybe a sign that Washington is losing faith in the negotiation process.
The agreement under negotiation is expected to be a highly complex 40-50 pages document, complete with an exact timetable of moves on the program by Iran, matched by precise easing of sanctions measures, and a mechanism for dispute mediation and management. Until the IAEA does confirm that Iran is implementing key measures, there will be no lifting of sanctions.
http://www.neurope.eu/article/vienna-is-not-looking-good-for-tehran/