Ukraine will remain a transit state for some of the Russian gas
supplies to Europe despite statements by Russian gas monopoly Gazprom
that it will stop gas supplies via the former Soviet republic by 2019.
Russia has invested lots of capital and they have invested
politically in the Ukrainian pipeline system, Constantinos Filis,
director of research at Institute of International Relations, told New
Europe on October 13.
“I don’t think that they will exclude it as they say from 2019. They
will keep the Ukrainian system as part of their export policy to Europe.
They will add probably more quantities to Nord Stream with the
expansion of Nord Stream 2 and then maybe if there is further need they
might explore the idea of bypassing Ukraine from the southern branch.
But Ukraine in my view will remain part of the equation. The Europeans
want that, the Russians want that so it’s just a matter of a tactical
game between the three sides,” Filis said, speaking on the sidelines of a
conference on Investing in Energy in Athens.
Gazprom accounts for around a third of Europe’s gas needs and typically about half of that is pumped via Ukraine.
Russia signed recently an agreement with five European companies to
increase the capacity of the Nord Stream pipeline from Russia to Germany
under the Baltic Sea to 110 billion cubic metres per year from as early
as 2019,” Filis said.
Filis said that the two recent agreements between Gazprom and Royal
Dutch Shell as well as Gazprom and Germany’s BASF show that business
interests “show us the way in a kind of rapprochement between Europe and
Russia”.
“The Russians have realised that if they continue their policy which
ignores the main interests of Europe as well as some realities they
would risk isolating themselves and this not something they want because
the Europeans are very good clients for the Russians and its not easy
to make this strategic shift – we keep listening from many circles – to
China,” he said.
“It’s not easy, it’s costly and it could take time. So the Russians
want to improve their ties with Europe, they have shown bigger
flexibility in recent months with a number of moves and I think that
Russia would very much like to continue to having this strategic
cooperation and this strategic goal with regard to Europe,” Filis said.
Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller said on October 6 that Gazprom has almost
halved the planned capacity of its Turkish Stream gas pipeline project
to 32 billion cubic metres per year from an original capacity of 63
billion cubic metres.
Filis argued that there is no need for Turkish Stream and there are
no clients. “From the very beginning I was very cautious about Turkish
Stream given the fact that, if we exclude the 16 bcm that are directed
to the Turkish market, the rest of Turkish Stream, as it was described
at first, speaking about 63 bcm reaching the European market, I don’t
think that it was realistic,” he said.
He opined that if Moscow and Ankara finally agree on Turkish Stream,
the pipeline could have two 16-billion-cubic-metre branches: one
reaching Turkey and one reaching Italy via Greece through the revival of
the Interconnector- Greece-Italy (IGI Poseidon).
http://neurope.eu/article/eu-russia-ukraine-tactical-gas-game/