The prices of most commodities will continue to fall in 2012, but oil prices are expected to stay elevated due to fears of supply disruptions, the International Monetary Fund said in its outlook on the global economy.
The prices of most commodities will continue to fall in 2012, but oil
prices are expected to stay elevated due to fears of supply disruptions, the
International Monetary Fund said in its outlook on the global economy.
The IMF said it expects a combination of improving supply and slowing global
demand to cause the prices of "non-oil commodities" to fall by 14%
this year.
"In the near term, the risks to prices are to the downside for most of
these commodities," according to the IMF's World Economic Outlook released
Tuesday morning.
The IMF singled out oil prices as the likely exception, the IMF said, pointing
to geopolitical risks. Still, the body trimmed its 2012 oil-price estimate to
$99 a barrel from its $100-a-barrel forecast issued in September.
The IMF said the global economy remains threatened by the euro zone's debt
crisis and strains elsewhere. Global output is expected to expand 3.25% this
year, a downward revision of about 0.75 percentage point, the IMF said.
"Financial conditions have deteriorated, growth prospects have dimmed, and
downside risks have escalated," the IMF said.
Commodity prices broadly fell in 2011 as the shaky global economy dented
demand. Oil prices, however, proved to be an exception, largely due to supply
disruptions in Libya and worries about Iran--even in the face of weak demand.
Such supply worries are likely to buffet the market for some time in 2012, the
IMF said.
"Geopolitical risks to oil prices have risen again," it said.
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