A top adviser to China's economic planning agency says the country's shale gas production could reach between 20 billion and 30 billion cubic meters a year by 2020--a much more conservative estimate than the government's official forecast.
A top adviser to
China
's
economic planning agency says the country's shale gas production could reach
between 20 billion and 30 billion cubic meters a year by 2020--a much more
conservative estimate than the government's official forecast.
China
plans
to sharply increase natural gas output in the coming decade by following the
example of the
United States
,
where hydraulic fracturing technology has spurred a shale gas boom in recent
years.
"Production could reach 20 to 30 billion cubic meters a year by
2020," Zhou Fengqi, senior adviser of the energy research institute at
China's National Development and Reform Commission, said in an interview late
Wednesday.
That estimate is significantly lower than the official forecast of 60 billion
to 100 billion cubic meters set by the government earlier this year.
"It's very hard to predict, because we've just started exploring,"
said Mr. Fengqi.
China
recently set a target to produce 6.5 billion cubic meters a year of shale gas
by 2015, up from virtually zero this year. It expects to rapidly increase
production by 2020.
Exploration of shale gas reserves in the
U.S.
has
already transformed the global energy balance. The country is now a potential
exporter of liquefied natural gas to world markets, while just a few years ago,
exporters were targeting the
U.S.
as a
major import market.
Initial estimates show
China
's
shale gas reserves to be even larger than in the
U.S.
However,
China
still
lacks the know-how and infrastructure to begin large-scale production, while
there are also issues such as water supply and the bigger depth of the shale
formation.
"It will be difficult and more expensive to get it out of the
ground," said Mr. Fengqi
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