Surging U.S. crude oil output will rise by 800,000 barrels a day through 2016, when it nears 9.6 million barrels a day, the record high hit in 1970, government forecasters said Monday.
Surging
U.S.
crude
oil output will rise by 800,000 barrels a day through 2016, when it nears 9.6
million barrels a day, the record high hit in 1970, government forecasters said
Monday.
Increased use of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling techniques in
shale oil fields will continue the recent renaissance in
U.S.
domestic oil output, which had fallen to a 62-year low of 5 million barrels a
day in 2008, the Energy Information Administration said.
Oil output will level off and then start a slow decline after 2020, returning
to its expected 2013 average of around 7.5 million barrels a day in 2040, the
EIA said.
While oil output's downward turn is less than a decade away, the EIA projects
domestic natural gas output will grow strongly and steadily, posting a 56% rise
between 2012 and 2040, when production hits 37.6 trillion cubic feet.
The projections, in EIA's early release of its 2014 Annual Energy Outlook, are
significant upward revisions from the previous update to the annual outlook
released in April.
Oil production forecasts for 2025 and 2040 are 32.5% and 22% higher,
respectively, than in the April outlook, while natural gas output projections
in those years are 11% and 13% higher, respectively.
The sizeable upward revisions to the forecasts show "that advanced
technologies for crude oil and natural gas production are continuing to
increase domestic supply and reshape the
U.S.
energy economy as well as expand the potential for
U.S.
natural gas exports," EIA Administrator Adam Sieminski said in a
statement.
"Growing domestic hydrocarbon production is also reducing our net
dependence on imported oil and benefiting the
U.S.
economy as natural-gas-intensive industries boost their output," Mr.
Sieminski said.
The forecast is based on
U.S.
benchmark crude oil averaging near $107 a barrel in 2025 and near $139.50 in
2040, compared with $94 in 2012. Benchmark natural gas prices at Henry Hub are
projected at around $5.25 per million British thermal units in 2025 and $7.65
in 2040, compared with $2.75 in 2012.
The forecast also assumes that current
U.S.
energy laws and regulations remain unchanged through 2040.
Relatively low prices for natural gas "make it a very attractive
fuel" for new power generating capacity, the EIA said. In some areas,
natural-gas-fired power generation will replace electricity formerly supplied
by coal and nuclear plants. In 2040, gas will account for 35% of power
generation, topping coal's 32% share.
Demand for natural gas from the industrial sector is projected to grow by 22%
between 2012 and 2025. But large gains in output will allow for increased gas
exports, in addition to the greater domestic use, the EIA projects.
The
U.S.
will
become a net exporter of liquefied natural gas in 2016, and will become an
exporter of all forms of natural gas in 2018, two years earlier than was
projected in the April forecast. Pipeline exports of gas to
Mexico
are
expected to grow by 6% per year to 2040, while exports to
Canada
grow
by 1.2% annually in the same period. The
U.S.
is
projected to reduce imports of gas from
Canada
by
30% by 2040, as more demand is met by domestic supply.
Rising oil output will mean less reliance on imports of petroleum and other
liquid fuels, the EIA said. Imports will account for 25% of liquid fuel demand
in 2016, compared with the peak of more than 60% in 2005 when
U.S.
oil
use hit a record high of 20.8 million barrels a day. Reliance on imports will
inch up to 32% in 2040, but that's down from 37% in the previous forecast.
U.S.
energy consumption will rise by just 12% between 2012 and 2040. Oil demand, at
near 18.5 million barrels a day in 2012, will rise to near 19.3 million barrels
a day in 2025, but will decline to about 18.7 million barrels a day in 2040. EIA
projects rising fuel economy of light-duty vehicles will more than offset
growth in miles driven, helping to cut oil demand.
The
U.S.
will
account for just 16% of global demand of 117 million barrels a day for oil and
other liquid fuels like biofuels in 2040, down from 20.8% of demand of 89
million barrels a day in 2012. Global liquid fuels demand growth will be driven
by
China
,
India
,
Brazil
and
other developing economies, the EIA projects.
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