Tensions have spiralled
following the execution of Saudi cleric Nimr al-Nimr, the subsequent setting
ablaze of the Saudi embassy in Tehran, and Riyadh's expulsion of Iranian
diplomats.
The struggle between Riyadh
and Tehran for political and religious influence has geopolitical implications
that extend far beyond the placid waters of the Gulf and encompass nearly every
major conflict zone in the Middle East.
Most notably, perhaps, the
crisis means prospects for a diplomatic breakthrough in Syria and Yemen now
look much more remote, just as international momentum for negotiations seemed
to be on the verge of delivering results.
Years of turbulence
The current standoff is as
dangerous as its 1980s predecessor, which first saw diplomatic ties suspended
between 1988 and 1991.
This occurred at the end of
the turbulent opening decade after the Iranian Revolution in 1979 and the
grinding eight-year Iran-Iraq War from 1980 to 1988.
Saudi Arabia and the other
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states backed Iraq's Saddam Hussein during the
war and suffered Iranian attacks on their shipping, while in 1984 the Saudi air
force shot down an Iranian fighter jet that it claimed had entered Saudi
airspace.
Saudi
and other Arab Gulf governments also linked Iran's post-revolutionary
government with a rise in Shia militancy, an aborted coup in Bahrain in 1981,
and a failed attempt to assassinate the emir of Kuwait four years later.
Meanwhile, the
Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah al-Hejaz was formed in May 1987 as a
cleric-based organisation modelled on Lebanese Hezbollah intent on carrying out
military operations inside Saudi Arabia.
Hezbollah al-Hejaz issued a
number of inflammatory statements threatening the Saudi royal family and
carried out several deadly attacks in the late 1980s as tensions between Iran
and Saudi Arabia rose sharply.
Deep distrust
While the current crisis
lacks as yet equivalent instances of direct confrontation, tensions are as
dangerous as in the 1980s for three reasons.
The first is the legacy of
years of sectarian politics that have done so much to divide the Middle East
along Sunni-Shia lines and foster an atmosphere of deep distrust between Iran
and its neighbours across the Gulf.
In
such a supercharged atmosphere, the moderate middle ground has been sorely
weakened and advocates of a hardline approach to regional affairs now hold
sway.
Second, the Gulf states
have followed increasingly assertive foreign policies over the past four years,
partly in response to what they see as perennial Iranian "meddling"
in regional conflicts, and also because of growing scepticism about the Obama
administration's intentions in the Middle East.
For many in the Gulf, the
primary threat from Iran lies not in Tehran's nuclear programme but in Iran's
support for militant non-state actors such as Hezbollah and, more recently, the
Shia Houthi rebels in Yemen.
Both the Saudi-led
coalition in Yemen and the multinational coalition against terrorism announced
last month by Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman show Saudi officials in
no mood to compromise on regional security matters.
'Death knell'
Finally, the breakdown in
diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran probably sounds the
death-knell, at least for now, for regional efforts to end the wars in Yemen
and Syria.
Lost in the furore over the
execution of Nimr al-Nimr was an announcement that the fragile ceasefire agreed
in Yemen on 15 December had broken down.
Neither the ceasefire nor
the UN-brokered talks that started at the same time had made much headway, and
while the UN talks were due to resume on 14 January that is unlikely if the
Saudi-led coalition and Iran intensify their involvement in Yemen.
A similar outcome may now
await the Syrian peace talks due to begin in Geneva in late January, as weeks
of patient behind-the-scenes outreach to align the warring parties will come to
nothing if the two most influential external parties to the conflict instead
double down and dig in.
(www.bbc.com)