No matter how interested Bulgaria is in pursuing the
South Stream project, the outcome looks bleak, Stratfor writes in an analysis
of Russian gas infrastructure plans. There are certainly reasons Bulgaria and
Russia might choose to return to South Stream.
Firstly, Sofia "has remained open to the pipeline
proposal", and secondly it has clearly stated its ambition to establish
itself as a natural gas hub for Southeast Europe.
Stratfor recalls the December 11 meeting between
Bulgaria's PM Boyko Borisov and his German counterpart Chancellor Angela Merkel
and the EU Commission's subsequent agreement that a working group should be set
up to support the hub project.
"Though each of these moves has put Bulgaria closer
to achieving its new role in the region's energy market, it will still need to
find other sources of natural gas to turn the dream of a Balkan energy hub into
a reality. The South Stream project and the Russian natural gas it would carry
could be one such source," Stratfor goes on, referring to the decision on
December 10 to build the Interconnector Greece-Bulgaria.
Stratfor mentiones rumors, already denied by both
governments, that Russia has "resumed negotiations with Bulgaria over the
defunct South Stream project".
"Every possible alternative" to the transit
routes via Ukraine "faces significant political, economic or technical
constraints," the analysis reads.
"With Russian energy giant Gazprom in financial
distress and the European Union determined to break the firm's near-monopoly
hold in Central and Eastern Europe, fiscal pragmatism may force the Kremlin to
re-evaluate its ambitious energy goals."
With diplomatic ties between Moscow and Ankara turning
sour after the downing of a Russian Su-24 plane near the Turkey-Syria border,
Turkish Stream is now also a stalled project, and recent developments are
"prompting Gazprom to turn to other options, including South Stream and
Nord Stream II".
However, Sofia and Moscow would need the approval of
transit countries such as Serbia, Hungary and Italy and to get Turkery's
endorsement for South Stream, with Gazprom also in need to look for new
stakeholders.