Coal is steadily losing ground in the US energy landscape despite political efforts to support the industry, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and global energy think tank Ember.
On April 8, Trump signed a series of executive orders to promote coal production and remove environmental concerns in a White House ceremony. The move was positioned as a direct reversal of former President Joe Biden and Democrats' efforts to phase out coal over the past four years.
However, current BPA forecasts show a continued downward trajectory for the industry in both production and consumption.
US coal production fell 3.3% annually in 2024 to about 464 million tonnes and is expected to fall further to about 438 million tonnes in 2025, marking one of the lowest annual productions since the 1970s.
This decline is largely due to the increasing share of natural gas and renewables in electricity generation, along with the retirement of old coal-fired power plants.
Natural gas, solar and wind power dominated electricity generation in 2024 to meet growing demand, gradually replacing coal.
During the day, solar power displaced coal most significantly, particularly in the summer months. Natural gas also outperformed coal for much of the year due to its lower price in many regions.
Coal's share of US electricity generation fell to 15% in 2024, from 16% in 2023, with the EIA forecasting it to fall below 15% by 2025.
In contrast, coal accounted for 52% of total electricity generation in 2000.
Exports are also expected to fall
US coal exports reached 92.5 million tonnes in 2024, but are expected to fall to 88 million tonnes this year due to factors such as weaker global demand, a strong US dollar and China's tariff policies on imports.
Despite the Trump administration's pledges to boost energy exports, coal is steadily losing competitiveness in global markets.
Experts say the latest orders could provide a short-term boost to the coal sector. However, current data and long-term forecasts suggest that the structural decline in the sector will continue.
Natural gas and renewables are gaining market share due to cost competitiveness, environmental regulations and evolving market dynamics, all of which are reshaping the future of coal in the U.S. energy mix.
Trump's coal mandates
During the signing ceremony, Trump accused Democrats of trying to destroy the coal industry over the past four years, calling the Democrats' green agenda a "farce" that kills jobs and drives up prices.
He also highlighted China's continued reliance on coal, claiming that the country is opening two new coal plants every week. Trump said other nations are returning to coal in the same way and his orders would remove "unnecessary regulations" that hinder clean coal development.
The orders aim to guarantee that coal companies can't shut down, speed up coal mining leases and simplify permitting procedures.
Trump downplayed global warming concerns, stating that the real threat is "nuclear overheating" rather than climate change.
(Anadolu Agency, 10 April 2025)