Russian President Dmitry Medvedev will visit Turkmenistan Sunday to mend fences after a blast virtually halted gas supplies from the reclusive Central Asian state but the talks are unlikely to bring a breakthrough, analysts said.
The meeting between Medvedev and his host Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, their first since the pipeline blast in April hit Turkmenistan gas exports to Russia, come after the Turkmenistan leader snubbed the Kremlin at least twice this year by refusing to come to Russia.
"The talks will not be easy," an official in the Turkmen government told AFP.
The official, who requested anonymity, said the two leaders would "conduct talks on the issue of cooperation in the gas sphere.
"The sides' positions are known and one can only hope that the sides will come to a compromise and a mutually beneficial solution on the gas issue," the official said.
The Kremlin said Medvedev will travel to the city of Turkmenbashi, where he and Berdymukhamedov will watch an off-road car race dubbed the Silk Way rally. The two presidents will also discuss ways to intensify cooperation in the gas sphere, including "new strategic projects," the Kremlin said Friday, without providing details.
The Turkmenistan government and Itera, a Russian gas company, will also sign a product-sharing agreement to develop a Caspian gas field, the Kremlin said.
Berdymukhamedov traveled to Moscow in March where the two leaders postponed the signing of a widely-expected pipeline deal. Kremlin officials said the presidents would meet in Russia either in St. Petersburg or Moscow in the summer.
But those meetings never materialized after a rupture of a pipeline in Turkmenistan halted gas supplies to Russia, causing Ashgabat lose at least $5 billion to date, according to estimates from the East European Gas Analysis.
Turkmenistan accused Russia of abruptly decreasing the volumes of Turkmen natural gas, causing the pipeline to rupture, allowing Russia to drastically scale down its imports of Turkmen gas at a time when demand for gas in Europe fell. Russia dismissed the incident as a technological mishap but observers say exports of the Turkmenistan gas haven't restarted, suggesting Russia wanted Turkmenistan to lower its gas prices.
Russia's state-run gas giant OAO Gazprom (GAZP.RS) refused to comment on the current situation but analysts said the volume of Turkmen exports to Russia has at best been minimal after the blast.
"The only thing they can do is to promise to resume the purchases in old volumes," said Mikhail Korchemkin, director of East European Gas Analysis, referring to Russia.
He doubted Russia would follow through on its promise as "such purchases are loss-making for Gazprom and the Russian budget."
Berdymukhamedov has expressed readiness to supply Turkmen gas to the European Union-led Nabucco pipeline, a long-delayed project designed to supply the bloc with gas from the Caspian Sea region while bypassing Russia.
Analysts said Gazprom needed good ties in Turkmenistan in the long run but as long as demand for the Russian-shipped gas remained low, Moscow had the upper hand.
Medvedev will arrive in Turkmenistan from the Kazakh city of Aktau where Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan were to discuss cooperation on the Caspian Sea.