Cities must take the lead in
the transition to a low-carbon energy sector, the International
Energy Agency (IEA) said today, highlighting that urban areas account for
up to two-thirds of the potential to cost-effectively reduce global carbon
emissions.
In its annual
report,
Energy
Technology Perspectives 2016 (
ETP 2016), the IEA offers
long-term technology pathways that could limit the global temperature increase
to no more than 2°C, in line with the goals set at the Paris climate conference
(COP21) in December 2015. The most cost-effective approach involves deploying
low-carbon options in cities, especially in emerging and developing economies.
"Cities
today are home to about half the global population but represent almost
two-thirds of global energy demand and 70% of carbon emissions from the
energy sector, so they must play a leading role if COP21 commitments are to be
achieved," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said at the launch of the
report during the Clean Energy
Ministerial in San Francisco. "Because cities are centres of economic
growth and innovation, they are ideal test-beds for new technologies – from
more sustainable transport systems to smart grids – that will help lead the
transition to a low-carbon energy sector."
And action will
need to bring global stakeholders together. Looking forward, at least
two-thirds of the growth in global final energy demand to 2050 will come
from cities in emerging and developing economies. Between
now and 2050, a large portion of new buildings -
equivalent
to 40% of the world’s current building stock -
will be
built in cities in emerging and developing economies which will also account
for 85% of the increase in urban passenger travel globally. Without change in
current policies, that increased demand for energy services would double these
cities’ energy-related CO2 emissions.
But many of the urban areas in these emerging economies are not yet fully
built.
ETP 2016 shows how they can avoid the carbon-intensive
infrastructure typical of many cities in developed economies while still
providing citizens access to modern energy services with the same level of
comfort. International collaboration will therefore remain critical to
ensure that cities around the world can draw on their respective experiences.
For instance,
urban buildings provide useful space to self-generate the electricity they
consume: by 2050, rooftop solar could technically meet one-third of cities’
electricity demand. And those buildings offer significant demand potential for
the roll-out of the most efficient technologies, like energy-efficient windows
and appliances.
ETP 2016 also details how best electric vehicles and
public transport can lead to a low-carbon mobility system while reducing
investment needs by USD 20 trillion compared with current development trends in
cities.
But while
ETP
2016 shows that the COP21 goals are achievable, its Tracking Clean Energy
Progress analysis reveals that progress deploying clean energy technologies
worldwide is still falling worryingly short of what is needed. The IEA analysis
reveals that there have been positive developments on some technologies: the
total renewable energy capacity installed currently provides around 23% of
global electricity generation, sustained by progress in solar PV and on-shore
wind that pushed the growth of renewable energy capacity to a record high,
exceeding 150 gigawatts in 2015. This is an encouraging trend in line with
the
2°C goal of having in excess of two-thirds of electricity generated by
renewables in 2050. China is the largest renewable energy market, accounting in
2015 for more than half of the world’s new global onshore wind capacity and
one-third of the solar PV capacity installed. The United States
maintained its position as the second largest market in the world for renewable
energy, sustaining a 40% growth rate in capacity additions over the past year.
In
ETP 2016, China and the United States collectively account for one
third of the renewable energy capacity additions to 2050 that are required to
be on track to meet the 2°C goal.
In parallel, the
global stock of electric vehicles on the road surpassed one million in 2015, a
significant milestone, albeit the current stock is still small compared to the
ambitious aim of deploying over one billion electric vehicles by 2050 to
achieve the 2°C goal. China and the United States were market leaders in total
sales, and Norway kept its global lead in terms of market share, with almost
one in four cars sold being electric, but the global share is still low, with
only seven countries having more than 1% of electric vehicles in their market
share.
Summarising the
report’s findings, Dr. Birol concluded "COP21 could prove to be a historic
turning point for radical action against climate change, and recent
developments on some clean energy technologies are encouraging. However, overall
progress is still too slow, and must be accelerated to avoid low fossil fuel
prices becoming an obstacle to the low-carbon transition. Today’s energy market
conditions will be a litmus test for governments to show how dedicated they are
to turning their Paris commitments into concrete actions for a low-carbon
future.”