The
number of electric cars on the roads around the world rose to 2 million in
2016, following a year of strong growth in 2015, according to the latest
edition of the International Energy Agency's
Global EV Outlook.
China
remained the largest market in 2016, accounting for more than 40% of the
electric cars sold in the world. With more than 200 million electric
two-wheelers and more than 300,000 electric buses, China is by far the global
leader in the electrification of transport. China, the US and Europe made up
the three main markets, totalling over 90% of all EVs sold around the world.
Electric
car deployment in some markets is swift. In Norway, electric cars had a 29%
market share last year, the highest globally, followed by the Netherlands with
6.4%, and Sweden with 3.4%.
The
electric car market is set to transition from early deployment to mass market
adoption over the next decade or so. Between 9 and 20 million electric car
could be deployed by 2020, and between 40 and 70 million by 2025, according to
estimates based on recent statement from carmakers.
Still,
electric vehicles only made up 0.2% of total passenger light-duty vehicles in circulation
in 2016. They have a long way to go before reaching numbers capable of making a
significant contribution to greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. In order
to limit temperature increases to below 2°C by the end of the century, the
number of electric cars will need to reach 600 million by 2040, according to
IEA's Energy Technology Perspectives. Strong policy support will be necessary
to keep EVs on track.
Cities
are taking leadership roles in encouraging EV adoption, often because of
concerns about air quality. Major urban centres often achieve higher EV market
shares compared to national averages. A third of global EV sales took place in
14 cities in 2015.
Paris,
for instance, has mandated that any electric car is allowed to re-charge at the
re-charge stations of its car-sharing program, called Autolib. Amsterdam has a
unique strategy of offering the installation of charging points on public
parking spaces to people who make a request, ensuring that charging
infrastructure is installed where it's actually needed. London for its part
encourages EV adoption by waiving its congestion charge.
The
analysis shows that fleet procurement is an important means of encouraging
early EV uptake. Fleet operators, both public and private, can contribute
significantly to the deployment of EVs, first from demand signals that they
send to the market, and second thanks to their broader role as amplifiers in
promoting and facilitating the uptake of EVs by their staff and customers.
In that
respect, four major US cities - Los Angeles, Seattle, San Francisco and
Portland - are leading a partnership of over 30 cities to mass-purchase EVs for
their public fleets including police cruisers, street sweepers and trash
haulers. The group is currently seeking to purchase over 110,000 EVs, a
significant number when compared to the 160,000 total EVs sold in the United
States in 2016.
The
report offers a comprehensive collection of national-level data on EV
deployment based on primary data collected from member governments of the
Electric Vehicle Initiative (EVI). The EVI is a multi-government policy forum
established in 2009 under the Clean Energy Ministerial (CEM), dedicated to
accelerating the deployment of EVs worldwide.
EVI
members will also launch the EV30@30 campaign during the Eighth CEM Meeting on
June 8 in Beijing. The campaign will set a collective aspirational goal for all
EVI members of a 30% market share for electric vehicles in the total of all
passenger cars, light commercial vehicles, buses and trucks by 2030. The
campaign will also raise support for accelerated deployment of charging
infrastructure, commitments on fleet procurement, and exchange and replication
of best practices for the promotion of EVs in cities.
Clear
and ambitious policy support is vital to keeping the growth of EVs on track
with IEA low-carbon scenarios, to improve urban air quality, and diversify
transport energy sources. Despite impressive improvements in costs and energy
density over the past decade, battery packs are still expensive, driving up
retail prices. Financial incentives for EV adoption and taxes on fossil fuels
will continue to be important in the current phase of EV technology deployment
to initiate and reinforce a positive feedback loop that, through increasing
sales, production scale-ups and technology learning, will further support cost
reductions for batteries and other components.
Download the full report for free here
.