Despite the outcome of the hard political negotiations to form a coalition government following the re-election of Germany’s
Angela Merkel to a fourth-term in power, Berlin’s policy towards the construction of
the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany will most likely
remain the same.
"I think that irrespectively of what shape its next government will
take – for example, Jamaica, new ‘grand’ coalition, new elections –
Germany’s attitude towards Nord Stream-2 would continue to be just as it
has always been i.e. the project will going ahead as long as it
conforms to the existing law, as the project is in German interest – and
also in overall Europe’s interest,”
Katja Yafimava, a senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, told New Europe on September 28.
Yafimava noted that if it were to be a so-called Jamaica coalition of
Merkel’s Christian Democrats with Germany’s Free Democrats (FDP) and
Greens, the pro-business FDP might view it favourably as the project
would bring competitively priced gas to Germany which is good for
business and consumers, and would also provide a concrete example of
positive cooperation between Germany and Russia, especially should the
latest Russian proposal with possible modifications for United Nations
peacekeepers mandate in eastern Ukraine be adopted and contribute
towards the implementation of Minsk 2.
"The Greens might not view it negatively too: with business as usual
Germany is most likely to miss its 2020 emissions reductions targets
whereas additional gas brought via Nord Stream-2 would enable Germany to
meet its CO2 emissions reductions targets post 2020, which would be an
improvement from the environmental perspective and should be seen as
positive by the Greens, Yafimava said, adding that the CDU as headed by
Merkel is likely to maintain the same approach as it had its coalition
with SPD. "In short, Nord Stream-2 is unlikely to be a real red line for
any possible coalition partner,” the Oxford Institute for Energy
Studies expert said.
She argued that Nord Stream-2 would really be mostly to compensate
for decline in domestic northwest European production and will mostly
serve Northwest European markets and Italy. It may serve some of Central
Europe and South Europe countries but nowhere near at the two-third
level of its capacity, Yafimava said.
Meanwhile, energy expert
Peter Poptchev, who has
served as ambassador-at-large for energy security at the Bulgarian
Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told New Europe in Sofia on September 28
that Merkel would probably have to make a number of concessions but "her
energy policy has essentially been of a character and a substance that
both the Greens and the Free Democrats, and indeed others, should be
able to support”.
"I have in mind Germany’s Energy Transition, which angered many
household consumers, but proved right from the point of view of the
long-term national strategic interests in general and those of the large
energy companies of Germany in particular – in renewables, both solar
and wind, energy efficiency, and gas,” Poptchev said, referring to
Germany’s Energiewende.
"Natural gas and in particular renewables will be the two main
drivers of energy growth in both Europe and beyond, and these are areas
in which Germany, Europe’s biggest market, has got it right,” he said.
"As to Nord Stream-2, Germany will prefer to become the most
important transit and distribution centre of Russian gas in Europe, with
a view to keep the Union together and link up its booming industry with
that of other EU Members and energy, in particular gas, plays a big
role in this, Poptchev said. He added, however, that Germany would have
to coordinate this with France, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, the Czech
Republic, perhaps even Poland and other Central and Southeast Europe
countries "if it hopes to lead a rebirth of the EU”.
https://www.neweurope.eu/article/merkels-new-coalition-likely-wont-sideline-nord-stream-2/