The International Energy Agency Wednesday forecast global refinery throughput would decline in February, as refiners curtailed production in the face of weak refining margins.
"Refinery throughputs in January and February have been pressured by the most extensive economic run cuts in five years," the IEA said.
In its widely watched monthly oil report, the energy watchdog for the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development also revised lower its expectations for 2008 global oil product demand by 200,000 barrels a day to 87.6 million barrels a day.
The downward revision was a result of weaker GDP growth figures reported by the International Monetary Fund, the IEA said.
"Weaker OECD growth, however, stands against still-robust projections for GDP growth in China and the Middle East, the key oil demand growth centers," the IEA said.
Global refinery runs are expected to reach 74 million barrels a day in February, versus 74.6 million barrels a day in January as seasonal refinery maintenance sets in.
Looking forward, the agency predicts first quarter crude runs will average 74.2 million barrels a day, a 300,000 barrel downward revision from the January forecast.
"Further downward revision to 1Q08 estimates is possible if the current weak margins persist," the agency warned.
In the U.S., margin weakness has prompted some refiners to reevaluate capital spending programs, threatening to delay or cancel projects, the IEA said.
But the switch to summer grade gasoline in the coming months could be a "catalyst for boosting margins," due to the more complex process of blending ethanol with summer grade gasoline, the IEA said.
Russian refinery output increased to 4.6 million barrels a day last year, a substantial rise from its five-year average of 4 million barrels a day. Complex and hydroskimming refineries helped the country to raise its throughput.