Its image in Europe battered and its economy threatened by higher gas prices, Ukraine has suffered major losses from its gas war with Russia, analysts said.
Russian gas may have begun flowing to Europe through Ukraine Tuesday, but European consumers won't soon forget being left in the cold for nearly two weeks and much anger is focusing on Kiev, analysts said.
"Regardless of who may have started the crisis, which seems to have been Russia, Ukraine's reputation has suffered," said Andrew Wilson, an expert on Ukraine at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
Analysts said the images of both countries had suffered during the crisis, which saw gas supplies to Europe cut off after Moscow accused Ukraine of stealing gas destined for the continent.
Russia had cut domestic supplies to Ukraine on New Year's Day after the two countries failed to resolve a bitter dispute over gas prices and payments.
But analysts said the damage will be more keenly felt in Ukraine, where Kiev's pro-Western government has been seeking closer ties with Europe and has come to count on the European Union backing it against Russia.
"While there is a lot of sympathy in Europe for Ukraine...that patience and benefit of the doubt is wearing thin," said Tomas Valasek of the London-based Centre for European Reform.
"Russia had a lot less to lose in terms of its image in Europe because it was already so bad. But Ukraine had a lot to lose - and it lost a lot," he said.
The crisis had increased the number of those in the E.U. skeptical about closer ties with Ukraine, said Volodymyr Fesenko of the Kiev-based Penta political studies center.
"Ukraine has become the next big disappointment for Europe. In the end Europe did not care to understand whether Ukraine was in the right or not. It saw only fact: we are not getting gas," he said.
Meanwhile the country's economy, already in freefall from the global financial crisis, will have to deal with a significant increase in gas prices that is sure to hit to its gas-dependent and crucial heavy-industry sector.
Analysts were already predicting that Ukraine's economy would shrink about 6% this year based on a gas price of $200-$220 for 1,000 cubic meters, less than Kiev is expected to pay this year and in 2010, when it moves to full European prices.
"In financial terms Ukraine will clearly pay more at a time when it is in very deep economic trouble," Wilson said.
The economic impact will also determine who in Ukraine's deeply divided political scene will eventually benefit from the deal, analysts said.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, who negotiated the deal, is a bitter political rival of President Viktor Yushchenko and the two were frequently at odds during the crisis.
Both are expected to be candidates in a presidential election due in late 2009 or early 2010.
The Ukrainian presidency quickly came out against the deal Tuesday, with the deputy head of the presidential administration, Oleksandr Shlapak, saying he was "disappointed and devastated" by the agreement.
Wilson said the political fallout will depend on the final gas price Ukraine ends up paying under market rates throughout the year.
Ukraine will pay much higher gas prices than last year in early 2009, but its rates may fall significantly if market prices drop in the next few months.