"The recent increase in crude-oil volatility and options activity suggests that" West Texas Intermediate "could easily" top 2008's record $145.29/barrel by year's end, says asset-management firm Factor Advisors. Based on options prices and implied volatility, it gives about 30% odds of a new record in 2012 amid Mideast uncertainty and US economic-growth prospects. By the same token, there are similar odds that crude could fall 39%, the amount futures would need to rise to set the new record. A drop of that size would put oil at $75, matching its 2011 low. Meanwhile, options prices show just a 9% chance that the S&P 500 could rise or fall 39% before 2013 arrives.

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