The price of oil and gas from Norway is on the brink of a sharp increase unless the Norwegian government steps in to prevent a costly shutdown of all production in Western Europe 's largest oil exporter, European traders and analysts said Monday.

"The market will become very, very, very tight," said one trader of crude in the North Sea .

Statoil has said a shutdown would result in it losing 1.2 million barrels of oil equivalent a day, valued at about 520 million Norwegian kroners ($85.9 million). However, the inability of Norway 's employers' group to find common ground with striking workers over their pension dispute, makes the shutdown from 2200 GMT Monday increasingly likely.

Monday's rise in Brent crude futures has already been largely driven by the fact that no agreement was reached in negotiations between striking Norwegian oil and gas workers and their employers over the weekend, said Thina Saltvedt, a senior oil market analyst at Nordea Bank Norge.

"If the lockout lasts for several days, oil futures could rise by a dollar or two [a barrel], as Norway supplies 11% of oil the European Union consumes," she said.

The price of U.K. gas has also climbed, with Barclays projecting a 10 pence per therm rise in the prompt price should the shutdown last a week.

The bank suggested that a muted response to the strike last week was largely due to expectations that the Norwegian government would step in to end the strike, as they have in the past.

"With the two sides far apart, achieving a negotiated consensus looks difficult and a fast resolution only looks possible with an imposed settlement--something the government did not want to do yesterday," the bank added.

At 1403 GMT, prompt U.K. natural gas was pegged at around 60 pence per therm for the day-ahead contract, a trader said Monday.

The front-month August Brent contract on London 's ICE futures exchange was 44 cents, or 0.5%, higher at $98.63 a barrel.

The Brent futures structure is already in backwardation, meaning that potential buyers worry they may face supply disruptions, said a second North Sea crude trader. Backwardation is when the price of the current contract is more expensive than that of those in the future.

"Besides, August and September are the months when field maintenance takes place, plus Forties crude loading program [for August] is four cargoes shorter than in July," he said.

Forties crude is the main component of global benchmark Brent, which also includes Brent crude and two Norwegian grades--Oseberg and Ekofisk.

The Paris-based International Energy Agency Monday reiterated its statement from last week and said it was "monitoring summer oil supply very closely."

The agency declined to comment on whether it was considering a release of oil reserves in response to the threat of a full Norwegian shutdown.

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