The Obama administration and officials of some Arab and Western nations
are discussing ways to place Syria's highest-ranking military defector
at the center of a political transition in the Arab state, according to
U.S. and Middle East officials.
The focus on Brig. Gen. Manaf Tlass, a childhood friend of
President Bashar al-Assad, is increasing as hopes fade for prospects
that an umbrella resistance group, the Syrian National Council, can
galvanize the opposition, the officials said.
Efforts to find a transitional figure who is palatable to the
Assad regime's Russian backers and leading Arab states, as well as to
the opposition, have taken on added urgency as rebel fighters make gains
in major Syrian cities and more high-level officials defect, the
officials said.
The officials said Gen. Tlass is one of the few figures in
opposition to the regime who could potentially help restore order in
Damascus and secure Syria's vast chemical-weapons stockpile.
Gen. Tlass was a commander in Syria's elite Republican Guard
before his July 6 defection, and his father served as defense minister
under Mr. Assad's late father, Hafez al-Assad, for 30 years.
He is also, unlike the Assad clan, a Sunni Muslim--which
Western officials hope could make him acceptable as a transitional
figure to the country's rebel fighters and opposition leaders, who are
also largely from the Sunni sect of Islam.
"It's too early to say if Tlass will stand the strain and pick
up traction or just fade away," a senior U.S. defense official said.
"The next week or two will reveal his credentials and attractiveness to
the various components internally and internationally."
But the focus on Gen. Tlass also underscores the dearth of
figures who can present a viable alternative to Mr. Assad. Many in the
opposition consider Gen. Tlass and his family too closely tied to the
Assads' repression and corruption to be acceptable to Syrians. They also
question his ability to win over members of Mr. Assad's Alawite sect,
which makes up 12% of Syria's population and appears largely unified
behind the regime.
"Someone like Tlass is difficult to sell to the Syrian
people," said Ammar Abdulhamid, an anti-Assad activist based in
Washington. "He certainly can't play any leading role in a transition."
The relative lack of Western options became clear this week,
when the European Union's foreign ministers shifted from its longtime
support of the Syrian National Council, a largely emigre group that
Brussels had made an official interlocutor in early 2012. On Monday, EU
foreign ministers dropped all reference to the group in its statement on
Syria.
A turning point came at the Paris meeting of the Friends of
Syria on July 6, a senior European diplomat said, when the SNC seemed to
have no response to the EU's calls for it to broaden its political
base. They "just don't seem to be making progress on this," the diplomat
said.
Gen. Tlass's flight to Paris this month was cheered in
Washington and Brussels as the clearest sign of cracks inside Damascus's
ruling elite. The majority of Syria's officer corps hails from Mr.
Assad's Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shiite Islam. Gen. Tlass's
defection has been viewed as a potential rallying cry for the Syrian
armed forces' Sunni base to switch sides.
On Tuesday, Gen. Tlass went on television and pledged to
facilitate change in his country and promote religious and racial
harmony. He spoke from Saudi Arabia, looking slightly ill at ease in an
open-neck shirt on the Saudi-owned Al-Arabiya network.
"I speak to you not as an official, but as one of the sons of
Syria...One of the sons of the Syrian Arab army that rejects the
criminal path of this corrupt regime," he said.
Arab officials said his appearance in Saudi Arabia showed how
the ruling al-Saud family is seeking a role for the Syrian officer.
Saudi Arabia is the leading Sunni state backing Syria's rebels against
Mr. Assad, along with Qatar and Turkey,
A senior Arab official said Gen. Tlass's trip to Saudi Arabia
was arranged by the country's new head of intelligence, Prince Bandar
Bin Sultan. Diplomats at Saudi Arabia's ambassador in Washington weren't
available for comment.
U.S. and European officials also hope that a role for Gen.
Tlass in the opposition would help win Russian support for a transition
in Damascus. The Tlass family is believed to have ties to Moscow because
of the Soviet Union's role in backing Hafez al-Assad's regime during
the Cold War.
Still, some Syrians who know Gen. Tlass and other members of
his family dismiss the possibility that he could play a central role in
any transition, especially given his family's role in the Assad regime
over four decades.
"They are in business and the army, so they are covered both
ways," said a family acquaintance. Gen. Tlass has a brother, Firas, who
has for example won government contracts to import sugar and feed the
military. Gen. Tlass and his brother couldn't be reached for comment.
Some who know Gen. Tlass question his leadership ability. One
family acquaintance said that although Gen. Tlass objected to the use of
force in putting down the uprising in places such as Homs and Hama, and
favored dialogue, he was unable to stand up to regime hard-liners.