Brent crude oil could sink to $60-70/barrel next year if global GDP
growth slows sharply to below 1% and OPEC has difficulty cutting output to
balance declining demand, muses JPMorgan.
Noting that economic uncertainty is
depressing forward prices despite tight near-term inventories, the investment
bank is tilting at the low end of its $100-120 range for Brent next year as
JPMorgan expects 2.1% global GDP growth. But if growth slows to 1-2%, Brent
"at times" could slip as low as $95.
A "significant" fall
to sub-1% growth would put Brent back to levels last seen briefly in May 2010
and last recorded on a sustained basis in September 2009. ICE November Brent futures
down 1.2% at $101.54.